399
FXUS64 KMAF 170728
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
228 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
AND CULBERSON COUNTY PLAINS. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND
TODAY!
- A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NIGHTTIME IR IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITHIN NORTHERLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DESPITE WINDS AT THE SURFACE
VEERING FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, AS
MID TO UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EASTERN CONUS
TROUGHING PERSISTS. HOWEVER, MID TO UPPER RIDGING INCREASING TO 3 TO
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS LATER TODAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE 20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S F
MID-MORNING, RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S F BY NOON, AND THEN UPPER
60S TO MID 70S F BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. COOLEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NOT JUST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT FOR
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FARTHER AWAY FROM LARGE
SCALE SINKING AND ACCOMPANIED WARMING FROM THE MID TO UPPER RIDGING.
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE TEENS TO 20S F, LEE
TROUGHING REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX INTO
SE NM PLAINS, A WARM AND DRY SPRING DAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT WHILE REMAINING SOUTHERLY BY NIGHTFALL, WHICH ALONG WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 30F ALLOWS LOWS TO MAINTAIN A 25
TO 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE AND MID TO UPPER 30S F SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AS
WELL AS NORTHEAST LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS
RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F NOON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F, UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHS RISING UP TO THE 90S
F FOR THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE 20S F AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW ENSUES. IF THIS SEEMS LIKE A PATTERN WITH SIMILARITIES
TO THE SUMMER-TIME DEATH RIDGE DESPITE IT BEING MID TO LATE MARCH,
WHAT MIGHT WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AS THE WARMING TREND
ONLY CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND? READ THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WORK WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) REVEAL MAXIMUM
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES FOR 850, 700, AND 500MB LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THIS INDICATES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FURTHER INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
UPPER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE REGION. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL REINFORCE THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 40S AND 50S, BEFORE SOARING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, GUIDANCE HAS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS CREATING
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST. STAY TUNED!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DEVELOPING 17Z-22Z, CONTINUING UNTIL DECREASING BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS
01Z-05Z. BREEZIEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS OVER THE STOCKTON
PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AS WELL AS WESTERN
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL MINRHS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FUELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FURTHER
ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DECREASE
AFTER TODAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW MINRH WILL PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT LIGHTER 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY
DUE TO INCREASED WINDS FROM SURFACE TROUGHING AND A POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 42 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 80 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 42 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 79 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 69 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 75 40 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 71 38 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 42 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 43 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 76 42 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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