561
FXUS64 KMAF 180546
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
AND CULBERSON COUNTY PLAINS. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND
TODAY!
- A SHARP WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE SOUTHWEST US TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOVE SEVERAL DEGREES UP FROM THIS
MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 40S. THE TREND CONTINUES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED
NEARLY AREAWIDE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PUSH TO THE EAST AND CENTERS OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS RESPOND BY ONLY SETTLING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S FOR
MOST.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE HEAT COMES ON BY THURSDAY AS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE RIDGE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KMAF WILL BE IN JEOPARDY OF AT LEAST BEING TIED EACH AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF THE LOW DESERT IN BIG BEND MAY SEE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HIT THE CENTURY MARK. ESSENTIALLY NO REPRIEVE FROM THIS
UNSEASONABLE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST ARE NEAR ZERO. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THIS ONLY KNOCKS TEMPERATURES DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT TERMINALS SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST 10Z-14Z, THEN
VEERING BACK TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AT TERMINALS 15Z-22Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THEN PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS WITH SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS LEADING TO CRITICAL RHS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW MINRH WILL PERSIST
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT LIGHTER 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED WINDS FROM SURFACE TROUGHING
AND A POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NEAR ZERO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA, EXPECT FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 83 48 92 52 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 85 49 92 51 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 81 48 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 84 51 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 78 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 83 47 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 81 42 87 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 49 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 82 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 46 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94
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