840
FXUS64 KMAF 181155
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
655 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 654 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- THE SHARP WARMING TREND PERSISTS TODAY LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
NIGHTTIME IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS MID TO HIGH LEVEL
SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER DRIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS PERSIST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS IS DESPITE MID TO UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE OVERALL WESTERN RIDGING/EASTERN
TROUGHING MID TO UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY FLOW AND
A WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND SUNRISE TODAY, BEFORE NEAR SURFACE WINDS
VEER BACK TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LEE
TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX INTO SE
NM PLAINS. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY IN THE 20S F
AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE 40S AND 50S
F THIS MORNING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THEN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS ANOMALOUS MID TO UPPER RIDGING
AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION MAINTAINS ITS GRASP.
LOWS THEN FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S F BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S F BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 35F BUT SLOWLY INCH UPWARD. LIGHT WINDS AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 40F MAINTAIN A DIURNAL RANGE OF
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 DEGREES AND THE AIR WILL STILL FEEL DRY AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F BY NOON
TOMORROW, AND INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S F BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
ALONG WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL LARGELY BELOW 40F AND STILL
IN THE 20S F OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS. THE WARM
AND DRY SPRING WEATHER STARTS TO TAKE A TURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE AND
GENUINELY WARM TO HOT WEATHER BY LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. MORE DETAILS ON THIS CAN BE READ IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THESE DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, PECOS RIVER, AND
PRESIDIO VALLEY HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
MAINTAINS GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FURTHER INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BOTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING DURING THE WEEKEND (MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS).
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S AND 60S AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, GUIDANCE HAS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. MORE WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REAMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT TERMINALS WILL
GENERALLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST 20Z-00Z, AND THEN VEER TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 02Z-07Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT MOST
TERMINALS THEN CONTINUE INTO END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 81 48 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 50 93 53 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 80 47 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 83 52 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 78 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 84 48 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 81 43 85 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 81 49 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 46 92 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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