962
FXUS64 KMAF 190503
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- THE SHARP WARMING TREND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
TIED OR BROKEN THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, BRINGING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THOSE
LOCATIONS. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S FOR MOST. RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND TRANS PECOS. FOR
REFERENCE, THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT MIDLAND
INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT (KMAF) IS 90F, SET BACK IN 2017.
ACCORDING TO THE NBM AND HREF-CONUS, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-
60%) CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ABOVE 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THESE REGIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
ADDITIONAL RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
SHIFTING OVER OUR REGION. WITH THAT SAID, HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S FOR MOST.
SOME SPOTS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD EVEN
SEE READINGS TOP OUT INTO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 95
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT!
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THESE AREAS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BUILDING AGAIN BY TUESDAY, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS THAT
MORE WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY 22Z-01Z,
AND THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 54 95 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 93 51 95 53 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 87 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 58 96 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 84 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 50 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 86 44 89 45 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 54 95 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 90 55 95 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 91 51 95 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94
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