513
FXUS64 KMAF 190643
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- A WARMING TREND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. BE SURE TO
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
NIGHTTIME IR IMAGERY AGAIN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
DRIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
DENSER HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 20S F WITH 30S F OVER NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY. FOLLOWING
TEMPERATURES NEAR SUNRISE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F,
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F BY LATE MORNING
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA FARTHER AWAY FROM MID
TO UPPER RIDGING AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION. THEN,
TEMPERATURES RISE FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 70S F SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF
THE AREA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S F
ELSEWHERE. BY EARLY EVENING, HIGHS FINALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S F NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU AND WITHIN THE BASINS OF
CULBERSON COUNTY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S F GUADALUPES INTO MARFA
PLATEAU, LOWER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND TERRELL
COUNTY, AND MID TO UPPER 90S F PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS WINDS BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY AS LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX INTO SE NM
PLAINS RESTRENGTHENS, AND MID TO UPPER RIDGING 3.5 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL HOLDS. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
60S, 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT,
AND THEN MID TO UPPER 50S F, MID TO UPPER 40S F SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS INTO
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S F AREAWIDE, A
PRECURSOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST DAY OF 90F TO 95F+ HEAT
LATER IN THE DAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR - TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID TO LATE MAY THAN MID TO LATE MARCH AND AT LEAST 20F
TO 25F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY LATE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S F NORTHEAST OF THE
GUADALUPES INTO MARFA PLATEAU AND WITHIN THE BASINS OF CULBERSON
COUNTY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND MID TO
UPPER 90S F RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY. IT IS NOT OUT OF
QUESTION THAT HIGHS COULD REACH OR EXCEED THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
THE BIG BEND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THIS HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 30F, KEEPING
HEAT RISK LOW, EXCEPT WITHIN THE REACH OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT
OUTDOORS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG SINKING MOTION BENEATH
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED ONLY
BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN BOUNDARIES. EFI OF 0.8 TO 0.9 AND SOT 0.5 TO
1.0 WILL INITIALLY COVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX INTO
SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, BEFORE THESE ANOMALOUS
EFI/SOT VALUES FOR HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPAND NEARLY
AREAWIDE BY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE MID TO LATE MARCH EARLY SEASON
HEATWAVE PEAKS. MORE DETAILS ON HOW THE CONTINUED WARMTH MIGHT BE
EXPECTED TO PAN OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE
ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THIS IS DUE
TO THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S AND UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER, RIO GRANDE, AND PRESIDIO VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES ASCENDING ABOVE 95 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 50S AND 60S AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND! ANOTHER HAZARD TO
CONSIDER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE REGION DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, GUIDANCE HAS A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER
ROUND OF WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY 22Z-01Z,
AND THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 54 96 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 93 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 88 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 92 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 84 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 50 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 87 44 89 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 55 95 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 90 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 91 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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