634
FXUS64 KMAF 021109
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES IN FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%) RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS.
- BELOW TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
STORM ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR REGION
AS A PAC FRONT SWEEPS IN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS NORTHEAST, ARRIVING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY RANGE WITHIN THE 80S, WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE REACHING THE 90S. BREEZY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE, WEATHER
OVER OUR REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DRYLINE DIP INTO THE 50S OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS. EAST OF THE DRYLINE, THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE LOWS IN THE TO 60S.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ENTERING THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE LOOKS TO
SHARPEN UP NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER, EXTENDING TOWARD THE BIG BEND IN A
SLIGHT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY,
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 20-60% FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS. AT THE MOMENT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A PAC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH IN FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO 90S (MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. BEHIND THIS FRONT COMES
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND
BIG BEND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 20-50%. SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH A NEARBY JET, ALLOW RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY IN
THE 20-50% RANGE, UP TO 60%) TO CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERNMOST
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY TOP
OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, WITH 50S AND LOW 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND UP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEAR NORMAL (MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S) BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
BREEZY (10-20KT) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HOB AND CNM THIS
AFTERNOON, TAPERING DOWN AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
ERCS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, MIN RHS ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 15% FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, BREEZY (15-25 MPH) WINDS WILL OVERLAP CRITICAL MIN RHS IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, YIELDING NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WE
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERSIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THESE SAME LOCATIONS (MAINLY DRIVEN BY CRITICAL MIN RHS). BY
SATURDAY MORNING, A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING IN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING MIN RHS (ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 88 63 86 52 / 0 0 60 70
CARLSBAD 87 55 89 51 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 50 50
FORT STOCKTON 89 64 89 56 / 0 10 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS 76 55 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 84 52 87 47 / 0 0 10 30
MARFA 81 50 83 47 / 0 0 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 63 87 53 / 0 10 40 60
ODESSA 86 63 87 53 / 0 10 40 60
WINK 88 59 89 53 / 0 0 20 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95
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