592
FXUS64 KMAF 022300
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES IN FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%) RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS.
- BELOW TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BRINGS
BREEZY (15-25 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND DRY FUELS KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEAR-CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). AS
SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY TOP OUT INTO THE 80S, WITH A
FEW SPOTS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REACHING THE
90S.
BY FRIDAY, A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND EXTEND SOUTH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND
REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-60%) FRIDAY EXTEND
FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS,
INCREASING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS
MORE FAVORABLE. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THE STRONGEST OF STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP GIVEN MODEST (~6.5-7.0 C/KM)
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER, CAMS
MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON THESE VALUES AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW ELONGATED
PROFILES, SETTING UP A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SPLITTING STORMS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THOUGH, THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
BY THAT TIME.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST. MEANWHILE,
ANY REMAINING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE
LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND BIG BEND REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BRING
RAIN CHANCES (20-70%, UP TO 80%) MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES EXTEND FROM THE TRANS PECOS/MARFA PLATEAU TO THE
PRESIDIO AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS (INCLUDING THE BIG BEND NATIONAL AND
STATE PARKS). GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 60S FOR MOST (EXCEPT 50S TO LOW 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN).
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FROM BEGINNING OF PERIOD THROUGH MORNING 14Z-17Z
FRIDAY. THEN, A 25% TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TERMINALS
OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON 19Z
THROUGH THE EVENING 00Z. MAIN THREATS IN STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN VIS AND CIGS DROPPING BELOW VFR EXCEPT IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. A DRYLINE WILL FORM FROM THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS. WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. ERCS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, PARTICULARLY FOR
WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, MIN RHS ONCE AGAIN DROP
BELOW 15% FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, BREEZY (15-25 MPH) WINDS WILL
OVERLAP CRITICAL MIN RHS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, YIELDING NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS AND CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY
FUELS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS PERSIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THESE SAME
LOCATIONS (MAINLY DRIVEN BY CRITICAL MIN RHS). WITH THAT SAID, AT
LEAST A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED DURING THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA, BRINGING IN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING MIN
RHS (ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE BREEZY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 83 52 68 / 0 40 80 30
CARLSBAD 56 88 51 71 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN 66 86 62 73 / 0 50 60 60
FORT STOCKTON 65 88 56 69 / 10 40 40 50
GUADALUPE PASS 56 78 50 62 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 53 86 48 70 / 0 10 30 10
MARFA 51 83 46 67 / 10 20 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 84 54 68 / 0 50 70 30
ODESSA 64 84 54 68 / 0 40 60 30
WINK 59 88 54 70 / 0 20 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94
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