787
FXUS64 KMAF 030754
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
- MEDIUM (40-70%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE CUTTING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
JUST WEST OF MIDLAND-ODESSA AND SITTING JUST EAST OF THE CITY OF
PECOS CONTINUING SOUTHWARD AND STAYING EAST OF ALPINE. AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF BROAD ASCENT AND THE DRYLINE
WILL AID IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM AROUND MIDLAND/ODESSA TO THE EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE
RATES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT GET ORGANIZED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION OR DECAYING AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
HIGHS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR MOST WITH 90S ACROSS THE BIG
BEND.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING STRONG GAP WINDS
TO THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS, A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70F
MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS HANG ON FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MANY REACHING THE 60S. AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL NOT BE DROUGHT BUSTING, BUT WILL BE
BENEFICIAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS OVER THE TX/NM BY WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOVE BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH 70S
AND 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
DRYLINE TYPE PATTERN SETTING BACK UP.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR REMAINS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
JUST EAST OF MAF/FST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY. KEPT
PROB30S INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FOR THOSE SITES DURING THE DAY TODAY (FRIDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 83 52 68 46 / 50 70 30 10
CARLSBAD 88 50 71 49 / 0 10 0 10
DRYDEN 84 61 73 53 / 50 20 70 50
FORT STOCKTON 88 55 69 51 / 40 40 50 30
GUADALUPE PASS 78 48 62 46 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 86 47 69 44 / 10 30 10 10
MARFA 83 45 67 40 / 10 10 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 53 68 49 / 30 50 30 10
ODESSA 84 53 68 49 / 30 40 30 10
WINK 88 53 70 49 / 20 20 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 1 PM CDT /NOON
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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