636
FXUS64 KMAF 040523
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND
LOWER TRANS-PECOS. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN (ALONG THE TX/SE NM BORDER) AND EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS AND INTO THE BIG BEND. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO, HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS FAR SOUTH, PROVIDING BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
COMBINATION WITH MESOSCALE FORCING BY THE DRYLINE. AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S)
AND DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE 80S) IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN (BEST CHANCES
TO THE NORTHEAST) AND THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAN YESTERDAY (>7.2 C/KM), WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 30KTS AND ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE
DRYLINE. THIS SUPPORTS AN ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NOT ALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BECOME SEVERE AND CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. BASED ON
THE OBSERVED 18Z MAF SOUNDING, INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR
AS THE CAP HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO BE BROKEN YET. BREAKING THE CAP WILL
DEPEND STRONGLY ON WHETHER TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM AT THE
SURFACE AND/OR COOL ALOFT.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA, BRINGING STRONG GAP WINDS TO THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
AS SUCH, A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT THROUGH
1 PM CDT SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ELSEWHERE, BUT NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH,
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS. RAIN/STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH AND DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
BY SUNDAY, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BRING RAIN CHANCES (20-
70%, UP TO 80%) MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (GENERALLY 40-70%) EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF THE TRANS
PECOS/MARFA PLATEAU TO THE PRESIDIO AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS
(INCLUDING THE BIG BEND NATIONAL AND STATE PARKS). GUIDANCE SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S FOR MOST (EXCEPT 50S TO LOW
60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN). BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
BECOME MORE SEASONABLE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) SHIFTING
BACK EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND A DRYLINE
SETS UP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS PECOS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT AND CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR REMAINS AT ALL SITES. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 35KTS MAY BE SEEN AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE NEAR MAF AND AREAS TO THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 46 67 45 / 20 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 71 49 63 44 / 0 10 30 20
DRYDEN 72 53 61 49 / 50 40 70 50
FORT STOCKTON 69 50 60 47 / 20 20 70 50
GUADALUPE PASS 61 45 53 42 / 0 20 60 20
HOBBS 69 44 65 41 / 0 0 10 20
MARFA 64 41 54 36 / 10 40 80 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 49 65 46 / 10 10 20 30
ODESSA 66 49 64 46 / 10 10 30 30
WINK 69 49 63 45 / 10 10 40 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93
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