360
FXUS64 KMAF 041131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION, A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
FRONT AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE IMPACTFUL AS STORMS WILL BE QUICK
MOVING AND GENERALLY SHORT LIVED. BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EDDY COUNTY ARE ALREADY INCREASING WITH THE FRONT, SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING INHERITED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN.
TEMPERATURES STAY MUCH COOLER THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST.
BY TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER
WHERE LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS
SOUTH OF I-10 STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60F MARK.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
BROAD RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECAYING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THOSE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES STAY COOL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR SPOTS GENERALLY WEST OF
MIDLAND/ODESSA. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP TO NEAR AND ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70 TO LOW 80S FOR
MOST. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT LOW (10-30%) FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY THIS WEEK DIP INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST, BUT WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
CIGS HOVER NEAR VFR/MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CNM/FST WHERE THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT AFFECTED THOSE TERMINALS.
BRIEF SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT FST, BUT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 45 69 45 / 20 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 71 46 66 45 / 0 10 20 30
DRYDEN 72 52 62 50 / 50 40 60 50
FORT STOCKTON 69 49 63 48 / 20 20 50 50
GUADALUPE PASS 61 45 55 42 / 0 10 40 20
HOBBS 69 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 64 40 55 37 / 10 30 80 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 48 68 47 / 10 10 10 20
ODESSA 66 48 67 48 / 10 10 10 20
WINK 69 48 66 46 / 10 10 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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