722
FXUS64 KMAF 060521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS IS CAUSING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS, AND EVEN A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM SOME AWOS SITES IN THE BIG BEND WHICH
THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT, IS STILL HELPFUL. MODELS SHOW THESE
SHOWERS WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 40S BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S TOMORROW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
AN UPPER JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARRIVE TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THIS TIME CONVECTION WILL BE CENTERED
FARTHER NORTH THAN WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE PERMIAN BASIN,
INSTEAD OF CONCENTRATED IN THE BIG BEND. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THERE PROBABLY WON'T
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS TO BE A THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE TRANSITS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST, BACKING UPPER WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND SHARPENING A DRYLINE IN THE BASIN. THIS SYSTEM
IS MORE DYNAMIC THAN THE TROUGH EXPECTED TUESDAY AND IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS DELAYED FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING YESTERDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO
BETTER UNDERSTAND THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR REMAINS AT ALL SITES. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 48 67 47 / 0 10 40 10
CARLSBAD 69 47 69 45 / 10 50 60 10
DRYDEN 69 52 73 52 / 0 20 50 10
FORT STOCKTON 69 51 73 50 / 10 30 60 10
GUADALUPE PASS 61 47 65 48 / 10 50 50 0
HOBBS 69 45 64 42 / 0 20 50 20
MARFA 63 41 73 39 / 10 40 50 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 70 50 66 48 / 0 10 50 20
ODESSA 70 50 66 48 / 0 20 50 20
WINK 70 49 69 48 / 0 30 60 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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