516
FXUS64 KMAF 062348
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- MEDIUM (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS, AND IN/AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW, BEGINNING IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO THE TRANS PECOS
AND PERMIAN BASIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL JUST SEE SOME BENEFICIAL WETTING
RAINS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A BRIEF SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER AND BUMPS
TEMPERATURES UP TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST BACKS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
CONTINUES ADVECTING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
TIMING OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN THIS PATTERN IS NOT TYPICALLY
HANDLED WELL AND THE NBM IS PAINTING POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR A 3 TO 4 DAY PERIOD WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY TOO BROAD IN SCOPE
FOR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DETAILS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS SO WILL FOCUS ON A MESSAGE OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS PEAKING DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER
MOST TERMINALS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 48 69 47 78 / 0 40 10 0
CARLSBAD 50 72 44 84 / 60 60 20 0
DRYDEN 52 77 52 81 / 20 30 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 52 76 50 83 / 40 40 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 47 66 47 75 / 60 30 10 0
HOBBS 46 65 42 81 / 30 60 20 0
MARFA 41 75 40 79 / 30 30 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 50 69 48 80 / 10 50 10 0
ODESSA 50 69 48 81 / 10 50 10 0
WINK 50 72 49 83 / 40 60 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21
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