103
FXUS64 KMAF 070547
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1247 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- MEDIUM (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS, AND IN/AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW, BEGINNING IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO THE TRANS PECOS
AND PERMIAN BASIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL JUST SEE SOME BENEFICIAL WETTING
RAINS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A BRIEF SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER AND BUMPS
TEMPERATURES UP TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST BACKS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
CONTINUES ADVECTING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
TIMING OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN THIS PATTERN IS NOT TYPICALLY
HANDLED WELL AND THE NBM IS PAINTING POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR A 3 TO 4 DAY PERIOD WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY TOO BROAD IN SCOPE
FOR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DETAILS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS SO WILL FOCUS ON A MESSAGE OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS PEAKING DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL SITES. PROB30S ADDED TO TAFS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES AS SHOWERS FILL
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 47 78 55 / 40 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 72 44 84 51 / 60 20 0 0
DRYDEN 77 52 81 60 / 30 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 76 50 83 57 / 40 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 66 47 75 54 / 30 10 0 0
HOBBS 65 42 81 51 / 60 20 0 0
MARFA 75 40 79 45 / 30 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 48 80 56 / 50 10 0 0
ODESSA 69 48 81 56 / 50 10 0 0
WINK 72 49 83 55 / 60 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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