008
FXUS64 KMAF 070814
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 309 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- MEDIUM (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS, AND IN/AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR MOISTURE TO FILL IN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE AS THE AIR IS STILL QUITE DRY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN, BUT THESE
SHOULD BE ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS UNDER THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70S FOR
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THANKS TO
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS MOVE INTO THE 70S
AND INTO THE 80S ACROSS BIG BEND. BY TONIGHT, SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE KEEPS RAIN
CHANCES LOW (<10%). WITH LESS CLOUD COVER, HIGHS MOVE UP INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS BROAD, BUT LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, FRIDAY SEES
LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN AN 1-1.2" OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
HEADING INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THIS WOULD
EASILY RANK OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY TO MID APRIL AT KMAF
IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS. THERE WILL BE BROAD ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE, WHICH MAY MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO SET ANY PARTICULAR DETAILS REGARDING TIMING OR HAZARDS
TYPES BEYOND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY TUNED TO CHANGES
IN THE FORECAST.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL SITES. PROB30S ADDED TO TAFS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES AS SHOWERS FILL
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 47 77 54 / 30 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 69 43 82 50 / 70 20 0 0
DRYDEN 75 52 79 59 / 30 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 50 82 56 / 40 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 65 46 74 53 / 60 10 0 0
HOBBS 62 42 79 50 / 60 30 0 0
MARFA 73 39 77 45 / 40 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 47 78 56 / 40 10 0 0
ODESSA 66 47 78 56 / 40 10 0 0
WINK 70 48 80 55 / 50 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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