194
FXUS64 KMAF 080409
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WANING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SPECIFICS TO BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS!
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SHOWERS AND LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS IS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY WANING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL. THE THICK CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOCATIONS IN
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S, WHEREAS FARTHER SOUTH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
WILL BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST (LOW 50S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). SKIES CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY KEEPS LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST (MID-TO-UPPER 40S
IN TYPICAL COOL SPOTS, 60S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
ELEVATING RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WHILE A DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS BRINGS BREEZY SOUTH/ SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO SHARPEN A DRYLINE JUST WEST THE TX/NM BORDER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 10-40% WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BEST (30-40%) ODDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, HIGHS THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-
10 REACHING THE UPPER 70S. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROLL
OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY, KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE MOMENT,
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS.
ANOTHER, MORE ROBUST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGS INTO SOCAL AND BAJA SATURDAY MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BRINGS
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEARS, A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEVELOPS, ALLOWING FOR A
DRYLINE TO BISECT OUR REGION AND AID IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON ENSEMBLES, PWAT'S SATURDAY RANGE
BETWEEN 1-1.2 FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION (OVER THE
95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MAF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, COMBINED WITH AMPLE BULK SHEAR AND
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
REGION LOOKS TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY, WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AT THE
TIME. THEREFORE, KEEP MONITORING THE FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND! THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART
TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. AGAIN, SPECIFICS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SYSTEM ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THIS MAY WARRANT
SOME MONITORING AS WELL. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE WITHIN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE AFTERNOONS, WITH
80S BEING MORE PROMINENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHALL
DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, W/BASES ~ 4.5 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 47 79 55 81 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 45 82 51 85 / 10 0 0 20
DRYDEN 52 79 59 81 / 20 0 0 20
FORT STOCKTON 50 81 57 84 / 10 0 0 30
GUADALUPE PASS 46 74 53 76 / 10 10 0 20
HOBBS 42 79 50 82 / 10 0 0 10
MARFA 40 77 44 76 / 0 10 0 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 47 77 56 80 / 10 0 0 10
ODESSA 47 77 56 80 / 10 0 0 10
WINK 47 79 55 83 / 10 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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