145
FXUS64 KMAF 090311
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1011 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SPECIFICS TO BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS!
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING SET UP JUST WEST OF OUR
AREA THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TODAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). MEANWHILE,
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE HELPS KEEP LOWS IN
THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT (MID-TO-UPPER 40S IN TYPICAL COOL
SPOTS, LOW 60S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS).
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS CAUSES LOW-TO-MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-40%) TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP, MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS (PARTICULARLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL (MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG), AS WELL AS 0-
6 KM SHEAR (GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, UP TO 30 KTS LATER THAT
EVENING). FOR THE MOST PART, THIS WILL LARGELY LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT. THAT BEING SAID, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRODUCING
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BY THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
ANY CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHES. HIGHS THURSDAY TOP OUT
1-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALL ONLY INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
TROUGHING DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AND
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO END UP UNDERNEATH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE BEGINS TO SHARPEN UP OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE PECOS OUT AHEAD OF A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FRIDAY LOOKS LOW OVERALL, MAINLY DUE TO LOW 0-6 KM SHEAR (ONLY IN
THE 10-20 KT RANGE). THAT BEING SAID, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST TO ALLOW A COUPLE OF STORMS TO BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
BY SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DOWN
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OFF THIS DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE BETTER THIS DAY (25-35 KTS), AND INSTABILITY WILL
MAINLY BE BETWEEN 750-1500 J/KG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT,
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (PWATS WILL BE
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE). THEREFORE, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
YET ANOTHER CONCERN. THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS THAT NEED TO
BE REFINED, INCLUDING THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS (RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT), THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE (CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED THEN BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE EAST), AND EXACT TIMING/LOCATION. IN ANY
CASE, BY SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND THEREFORE
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER) SHIFT TOWARDS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND BEYOND OUR REGION. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
(10-30%) ARE MAINTAINED FOR THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS-PECOS AFTER SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT, MODELS DEVELOP
A TONGUE OF STRATUS UP THE PECOS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN, AND THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT KMAF AND (TO A LESSER EXTENT) KHOB
W/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD
CU FIELD THURSDAY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 4.5 - 6 KFT AGL. CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE KCNM/KFST/KPEQ, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION
ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 55 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 50 85 54 86 / 0 10 10 20
DRYDEN 59 81 60 82 / 0 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 57 84 58 83 / 0 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 54 78 54 77 / 0 10 10 20
HOBBS 50 82 54 82 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA 45 77 46 79 / 0 30 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 56 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 56 80 59 80 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 55 83 58 83 / 0 10 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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