167
FXUS64 KMAF 090817
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
317 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 316 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SPECIFICS TO BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TEMPERATURES MOVE JUST ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REACHING INTO THE 80S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND AIDS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING, MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONCE
AGAIN, RAIN AMOUNTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, BUT
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF SOME STORMS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, CONVECTION DECAYS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOVE INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S THANKS TO PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
A LARGE UPPER LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN US OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
AND FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FOR AREAS AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WEST.
HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES WILL STAY RELATIVELY LOW (<20%) BEFORE
INCREASING ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAY JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US MOVES
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE, SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES, FIRST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS AND
THEN EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PWATS AROUND OR EXCEEDING 1" OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEAR OR SET THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR
APRIL 11TH AT KMAF. GENERALLY, THIS SPELLS FOR FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKING STORMS, SO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR.
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS NEAR TERM MODELS ARE JUST IN RANGE OF THIS TIME
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TIMING FOR THE SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS EXITING THE REGION OR DECAYING BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR DRYLINE-LIKE PATTERN HOLDS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT DETAILS ON EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATIONS FOR STORMS ARE LESS CLEAR AS CONVECTION FROM THE DAY
BEFORE MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY.
MONDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED
LARGER UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THIS LOW AND BRINGING DRIER AIR TO
REGION AS WELL AS ELEVATED WINDS. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE THE FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AGAIN REBOUNDING LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST!
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT, MODELS DEVELOP
A TONGUE OF STRATUS UP THE PECOS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN, AND THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT KMAF AND (TO A LESSER EXTENT) KHOB
W/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD
CU FIELD THURSDAY AFTERNOON, W/BASES ~ 4.5 - 6 KFT AGL. CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE KCNM/KFST/KPEQ, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION
ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 81 59 82 60 / 10 10 10 20
CARLSBAD 86 55 86 58 / 10 0 20 60
DRYDEN 82 62 82 63 / 20 20 10 30
FORT STOCKTON 84 60 83 62 / 20 10 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS 77 55 77 55 / 10 0 20 60
HOBBS 82 55 82 56 / 10 10 10 40
MARFA 77 47 79 50 / 30 0 10 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 80 60 80 61 / 0 10 10 30
ODESSA 80 60 80 61 / 10 10 10 30
WINK 84 59 83 61 / 10 0 10 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...99
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