460
FXUS64 KMAF 221748
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND GAINES COUNTY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, MOST OF WEST TEXAS TO
THE SOUTH, AND GAINES COUNTY.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ON THE
WEST COAST AT THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER, NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVER
THE EAST. A LITTLE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER, HI-RES
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THIS NOT HANGING AROUND TODAY AS LONG AS
IT DID YESTERDAY, MAINLY DUE TO SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE
FRONT RANGE. THE ADVENT OF THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS LATER TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. ABSENT A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK
TODAY, COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT, THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN HIGHS APPROACHING
10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
TONIGHT, A 35 KT LLJ WILL REDEVELOP, ADVECTING RICH GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THIS MIXING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS
TO ADD 2-3 F TO THIS MORNING'S MINIMUMS, KEEPING LOWS ~ 10 F ABOVE
NORMAL.
THURSDAY, THE WEST COAST TROUGH EJECTS UP INTO CANADA, INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
GENERATING A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE OVER THE GUADALUPES AND HIGH
WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE'VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO COVER THIS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER FOR AT LEAST THE CULBERSON COUNTY PLAINS. CONSIDERING
DRY SOILS OUT THAT WAY, BLDU IS A GIVEN. THESE INCREASED WESTERLIES
WILL KEEP HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM AS TODAY'S, IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS DEPICTED BY THE LREF, WILL BE A CONVEYOR
BELT OF UPPER TROUGHS, WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE WEST COAST NEAR THE BAY AREA FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
TERTIARY TROUGH ALONG THE SAME PATH MAKING LANDFALL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS EACH DAY AVERAGING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ~ 10 F
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH THE SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL DROP A PAC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND SHAVE 3-4 F OFF
HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED ABOVE 20KFT ACROSS ALL SITES AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR. WINDS
DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT FOR MAF
AND FST SITES. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO SNEAK INTO MAF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE LESS EXTENT/COVERAGE COMPARED WITH THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
GIVEN THE DRYING/WARMING TREND, ATTENTION NOW MUST NECESSARILY TURN
TO FIRE WEATHER. WHILE RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST UP TO 2.60" FELL IN
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE BULK OF WHERE IT FELL (EAST) IS
NOT COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE WX IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK (WEST). SHOULD HIGHER 20-FT WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WHICH WOULD MEAN NOT THE NBM,
THEN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST TEXAS BEGINNING TODAY, AND
PEAKING OVER THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY LIKELY SUNDAY.
TODAY, 20-FT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPES DON'T LOOK AS
STRONG/WIDESPREAD AS THEY DID 24-HRS AGO, AND AS A RESULT, RFTIS
HAVE DECREASED IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND AREA. THEREFORE, GIVEN WHAT'S
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE FEEL TODAY COULD BE BETTER HANDLED
BY A RFD FOR ELEVATED FIRE WX.
HOWEVER, AS NOTED ABOVE, 20-FT WINDS ARE SET TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY, COMBINING WITH SINGLE-DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO YIELD WIDESPREAD RFTI OF 6-8 OVER THE NORTHWEST FWA.
THIS WILL COMBINE W/ERCS INCREASING ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE TO PUT
MUCH OF THE AREA BACK INTO CRITICAL FIRE WX TERRITORY. THUS, WE'LL
ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS CUMULATIVE PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY WORSEN AND SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 90 63 91 59 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 91 59 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 87 64 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 61 92 62 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 80 57 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 90 53 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 83 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 63 90 60 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 63 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 92 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...11
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