434
FXUS64 KMAF 221844
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND GAINES COUNTY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME BREEZY
ELSEWHERE.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SET UP
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH ENCOURAGES INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
MOST BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20
MPH, UP TO 25 MPH), WHERE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS
IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MAINTAINED FOR PORTIONS OF
BREWSTER, TERRELL, AND PECOS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER RETURNS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, LOWS ONCE AGAIN ONLY DIP INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THESE EASTERNMOST LOCATIONS, WHEREAS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DROPS INTO THE 50S. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND LEE TROUGHING PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.
THOUGH OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH THE LEE TROUGH ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT OF
THESE BREEZY WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGH WIND WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT END UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WEAKENS, ALLOWING WESTERLY WINDS TO ALSO
WEAKEN RELATIVE TO THURSDAY (10-20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA). HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS SATURDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN, MAINLY OUT
WEST. BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS
THE REGION, YIELDING ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERNMOST LOCATIONS AGAIN). HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOW-TO-MID 90S REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
PACIFIC FRONT SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO COOL
VERY SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS REMAIN ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-
ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS LARGELY
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED ABOVE 20KFT ACROSS ALL SITES AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR. WINDS
DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT FOR MAF
AND FST SITES. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO SNEAK INTO MAF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE LESS EXTENT/COVERAGE COMPARED WITH THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HELP KEEP WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WARM AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED DAILY ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. RECENT WETTING RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS HAVE
ALLOWED ERCS TO FALL BACK NEAR OR BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
HOWEVER, FUELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BE STRONGER ACROSS WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
FOR TODAY, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND GAINES COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS. WINDS TODAY
STAY GENERALLY IN THE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH RANGE, UP TO 25 MPH.
HOWEVER, WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY (MORE IN THE SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH
RANGE, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 30 MPH). THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS LARGELY DECREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH ADDITIONAL RFDS
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. BY SUNDAY,
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, IMPLYING FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED (ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE WINDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
GUSTY). OVERALL IT APPEARS WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN MONDAY, THOUGH
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 60 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 61 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 56 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 53 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 50 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 63 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 58 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CHAVES
PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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