311
FXUS64 KMAF 230845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, MOST OF WEST TEXAS SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND
GAINES COUNTY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FROM THE SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS
TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MDT /2 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL
PARK.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. LEESIDE TROUGHING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE VEERING FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST
TODAY OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, INCREASING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. W/THE NAM STILL DEVELOPING A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING, ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT WILL BE ABOUT AS MARGINAL AS IT GETS.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT STRATUS WILL ENSURE
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, IF NOT A SKOSH
WARMER. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL. SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
TONIGHT, HIGH WINDS ALOFT WILL SUBSIDE, AND A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA, SHAVING ~ 2-3 F OFF THIS MORNING'S LOWS.
EVEN SO, OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN 5-10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
FRIDAY, A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST, MAINTAINING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE, OFFSETTING COOLING
FROM THE COLD FRONT AND YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE OR
SO COOLER THAN WHAT'S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS DEPICTED BY THE LREF, WILL BE A CONVEYOR
BELT OF UPPER TROUGHS, WITH A TERTIARY TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ON THE
WEST COAST NEAR THE BAY AREA SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A FOURTH
TROUGH ALONG THE SAME PATH MAKING LANDFALL TUESDAY EVENING. THE NET
EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE, HIGH WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE TERTIARY TROUGH APPROACHES. ATTM, WINDS LOOK TO PEAK
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH WINDS THEN REDEVELOP BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT W/THE APPROACH OF THE FOURTH TROUGH.
THESE HIGH WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS, KEEPING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD PEAK FOR THIS FORECAST AT OVER 10 F ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE. A PAC FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP IN BEHIND THE
TERTIARY TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, DROPPING HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DOWN TO ~ 5-10 F ABOVE NORMAL. BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING,
SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST ALONG/EAST OF A DRYLINE, BUT THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST THAT FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A HIGH CLOUD OR
TWO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND BECOME
GUSTY, VEERING TO WEST AFTER SUNDOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR CU DEVELOPMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
GIVEN THE DRYING/WARMING TREND, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO ONE EXTENT
OR ANOTHER IS A GIVEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED, BEGINNING WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
WEST TEXAS, DUE MAINLY TO INCREASED 20-FT WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES AND VICINITY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SINGLE-
DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ERCS CREEPING ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING OF EASY FIRE STARTS.
FRIDAY, THE CRITICAL FIRE WX FOOTPRINT SHRINKS A LITTLE, DUE TO
DECREASED 20-FT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A PAC
FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH TODAY PREHEATING THE OVEN, SO TO SPEAK, AS
WELL AS INCREASING ERCS/DRIER FUELS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS CUMULATIVE PARAMETERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY WORSEN AND SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTH EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, AND NOW POSSIBLY
MONDAY, BOTH DAYS OF WHICH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ALMOST ALL OF WEST TEXAS.
STAY TUNED...
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 88 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 91 64 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 92 62 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 77 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 88 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 82 48 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 90 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
LOVING-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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