152
FXUS64 KMAF 232358
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST FOR GENERALLY
THESE SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ELSEWHERE TODAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO ROUGHLY THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE, AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS INCREASE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THESE FEATURES
(SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). THIS NOT
ONLY HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
BUT ALSO ENCOURAGES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH LOW
60S IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS.
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY, THOUGH THEY DECREASE RELATIVE TO
TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WEAKENS. THE RELATIVELY STRONGEST WINDS
(SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH, UP TO 25 MPH) WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN/AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHERE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S (ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AND ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WIND PRODUCTS MAY
BE NECESSARY FOR (MAINLY WESTERNMOST) PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW-TO-MID 90S
REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLIGHTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL. MEANWHILE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR EAST. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY
ONCE AGAIN ATTEMPT TO SNEAK BACK INTO OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR LOW
RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) TO RETURN TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THESE RAIN CHANCES TREND, SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE SOME AGAIN TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS HELP KEEP WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WARM AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED DAILY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. RECENT WETTING RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS HAVE ALLOWED
ERCS TO FALL BACK NEAR OR BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, FUELS
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND DRYING WILL
CONTINUE AREAWIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
STRONGER ACROSS WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WELL.
FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL LARGELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND WESTERNMOST PORTIONS). A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
UPPER TRANS-PECOS, AND LOCATIONS IN/AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF THE PECOS TODAY. WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RELATIVE TO
TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SIMILAR LOCATIONS AS TODAY FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERSIST
SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP SUNDAY. THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE RELATIVE TO SUNDAY
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MONDAY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 59 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 92 64 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 93 62 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 78 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 88 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 83 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 91 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 90 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 91 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
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