464
FXUS64 KMAF 240502
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST FOR GENERALLY
THESE SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ELSEWHERE TODAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO ROUGHLY THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE, AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS INCREASE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THESE FEATURES
(SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). THIS NOT
ONLY HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
BUT ALSO ENCOURAGES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH LOW
60S IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS.
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY, THOUGH THEY DECREASE RELATIVE TO
TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WEAKENS. THE RELATIVELY STRONGEST WINDS
(SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH, UP TO 25 MPH) WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IN/AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHERE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY END UP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S (ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AND ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WIND PRODUCTS MAY
BE NECESSARY FOR (MAINLY WESTERNMOST) PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW-TO-MID 90S
REMAIN COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO COOL VERY SLIGHTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL. MEANWHILE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR-ZERO THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS LARGELY TO OUR EAST. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY
ONCE AGAIN ATTEMPT TO SNEAK BACK INTO OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR LOW
RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) TO RETURN TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THESE RAIN CHANCES TREND, SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS
FROM 14Z-19Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z-02Z BEFORE DECREASING BACK
BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGHEST WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 58 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 57 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 95 62 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 61 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 87 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 83 48 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 60 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 91 56 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...94
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