231
FXUS64 KMAF 240833
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND CULBERSON COUNTY. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
FOLLOWING STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY, WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND UP TO 30 TO
35 MPH FOR THE GUADALUPES, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND WESTERN EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS LARGELY WEST OF
A DRYLINE. HIGHS TODAY AGAIN RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S F, MID 90S F
AND ABOVE FOR SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY DUE TO
THE CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HOWEVER, HEATRISK REMAINS
LOW DUE TO DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 30F AND MORE HUMID
AIR REMAINING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS MAINTAINS A DIURNAL RANGE OF 20
TO 25 DEGREES, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN RISING INTO THE 80S AND 90S F
SATURDAY. CONTINUED AND SIMILAR STRENGTH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
AS ON FRIDAY ALLOW AIR WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA AS THE DRYLINE SURGES FARTHER EAST. FOLLOWING LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F SATURDAY NIGHT AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS
MAINTAIN BOUNDARY MIXING AND LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING OF THE SURFACE
LAYER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND ISSUANCE OF WIND
AND FIRE PRODUCTS PRODUCTS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET BRUSHES NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF A CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN DEVELOPING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS SOCAL AND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE'S JET
STREAK NEARS OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS, SHOVING A DRYLINE EAST OF OUR AREA AND STEERING
BREEZY TO STRONG WEST/ SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY, LIKELY REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
MAY ALSO REACH NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
DRY CONDITIONS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S, AND AN OVERLAP WITH
STRONGER WINDS, FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY OVER AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PAC FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY'S HIGHS WARM
TO JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF SUNDAY'S, THOUGH WINDS REMAIN BREEZY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. HOWEVER,
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO REACH THE SAME MAGNITUDE ON MONDAY AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THUS, THE NEED FOR POTENTIAL, ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REQUIRE REASSESSMENT.
TUESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH'S JET STREAK GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING WINDS TO TAPER DOWN A TOUCH. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE WITHIN THE
UPPER 80S TO 90S. MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING THE DRYLINE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY
YIELDING SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS
FROM 14Z-19Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z-02Z BEFORE DECREASING BACK
BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGHEST WINDS GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT OVER THE SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS, THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, EDDY AND CULBERSON
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS AS BREEZY
(10-20 MPH) WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (6-10%), AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO YIELD
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET UP SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME CRITICAL SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK TRACKS TOWARD OUR AREA.
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS, AND PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 57 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 58 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 95 62 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 92 61 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 87 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 82 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 90 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94
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