558
FXUS64 KMAF 250502
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND CULBERSON COUNTY. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
QUASI-ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TONIGHT WITH MANY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH LOW 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
PORTIONS OF BIG BEND LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 100F. PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. READ
MORE DETAILS BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. SATURDAY NIGHT
SEES TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MANY SETTLING INTO
THE 60S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
SITUATED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE,
LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BRINGING VERY WARM,
BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO THE DRYLINE SENT EAST OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED MIXING, ALONG WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVERAGE COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CARLSBAD CAVERNS
NATIONAL PARK BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THESE LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HAS A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE AT
THE 500, 700, AND 850MB LEVELS INDICATING THE THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS. THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS AND THE WATCH LIKELY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
MONDAY DUE TO THE JET STREAK STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PER AGREEMENT AMONG LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE. BLOWING DUST WILL
BE ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONSIDER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS NEAR OPEN FIELDS AND
CONSTRUCTION SITES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S ARE IN STORE REGIONWIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING.
MORE NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST MONDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS INFLUENCED BY SURFACE
TROUGHING AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL JET LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING LESS WINDY CONDITIONS
WHILE DECREASING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING KEEPS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR AS MONDAY, PERHAPS A
TOUCH WARMER. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
SEND THE DRYLINE FURTHER WESTWARD, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LONG-
RANGE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING MOISTURE AND ANOTHER SHOT FOR
RAIN, HOWEVER, CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS SPLIT SOLUTIONS ON THE
PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. MORE DETAILS OF THIS SHOULD
BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TIME. STAY TUNED!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS FOR TERMINALS
ON THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS BEGINNING 14Z-17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
00Z-03Z. WINDS THEN DECREASE BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT TERMINALS INTO END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AND
TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO MINRHS BELOW 15% WITH 20FT WINDS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MITIGATED TOMORROW DUE TO
HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITING GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD/GROWTH IF ANY
FIRES DO IGNITE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BECAUSE OF STRONGER
WINDS, PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS, AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. ERCS
LOOK TO JUMP ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, FAR NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, AND FAR WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY. WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT, ERCS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO MONDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO NOT BE AS STRONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 90 61 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 97 63 97 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 94 64 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 58 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 89 59 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 84 50 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 92 64 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 92 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 92 62 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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