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FXUS64 KMAF 251617
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1117 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND CULBERSON COUNTY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM LEADS TO STRONG WINDS.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WARM, DRY, AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS DRIFTING WEST TO
EAST IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC SW
AND ADVECT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE GUADALUPES. THESE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE)
BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER, IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S F. A DRYLINE
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BELOW 35F,
ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT COOLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S F TONIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN DEVELOPS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS BRUSHING THE AREA AND TRANSPORTING HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH, WITH GUSTS 55 MPH TO 70 MPH, HIGHER
OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER RISK AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. AS SUCH, A HIGH WIND
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPES BEGINNING LATE MORNING
SUNDAY, AND TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S F. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHILE INHIBITING COOLING OF THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER, WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE AS THE DRYLINE
DEVELOPS WESTWARD. THIS KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F.
FOLLOWING CONTINUED WARM AND WINDY WEATHER EARLY WEEK, DECREASED
WINDS, INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE JET
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD. WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE/
DELAWARES LOOK TO STAY NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT
DURATION OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN REINTENSIFY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE JET ITSELF. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY, RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS.
REGARDLESS, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR ANY CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS! OUTSIDE OF
THE GUADALUPES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY MONDAY. A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
ELEVATED WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM, DRY CONDITIONS BRING CONTINUED
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH FORECAST PACKAGES IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.
TUESDAY, WINDS TREND DOWN FURTHER AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS TRACK
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE
80S TO 90S AGAIN. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH ARRIVES OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO BECOME
MORE COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE IS
SHOVED WESTWARD. RAIN CHANCES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SWINGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. HOWEVER, DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. IN EITHER CASE, INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND GENERALLY LOWER
HEIGHTS WOULD SEND TEMPERATURES ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN WESTERLY FLOW, GUSTY
AT TIMES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR A CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS, THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND THE
SURROUNDING PLAINS IN CULBERSON AND EDDY COUNTIES DUE TO MINRHS BELOW
15%, WITH 20FT WINDS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 MPH. AS SUCH, A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO LIMIT GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD/GROWTH IF ANY FIRES
DO IGNITE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SIMILAR
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN STRONGER WINDS, PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS, AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. ERCS LOOK TO JUMP ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
FAR NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY. WITH NO RAIN
IN SIGHT, ERCS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO MONDAY.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS VALID FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE FURTHER FIRE PRODUCTS.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO NOT BE AS STRONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 95 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 62 93 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 97 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 62 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 51 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 93 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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