107
FXUS64 KMAF 260918
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY,
WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER WITH STRONG
WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GUADALUPES AND DELAWARES INTO EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE GUADALUPES, EXPANDING INTO
CULBERSON COUNTY AND THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, AND A WIND ADVISORY IS
ALSO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
CULBERSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LEA COUNTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS 45 TO 65 MPH,
WITH HIGHER WINDS SUSTAINED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE FORECAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET BRUSHES NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND MIXES DOWN
HIGHER WINDS FORM ALOFT. HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S F
ONCE AGAIN AMIDST THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS, WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 35F AS THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO BE WEST OF A DRYLINE OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS, AND LOW RH WILL
MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER RISK, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND PORTION OF WEST TEXAS REMAINING IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). IN ADDITION
TO INCREASED FIRE RISK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. TONIGHT,
THE DRYLINE MAY RETROGRADE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT MOST
OF THE AREA WILL STILL REMAIN WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND A DIURNAL
SPREAD OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES WILL BE RETAINED DUE TO LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER, DUE TO CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING WINDS, GUSTY
AT TIMES, LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID TO
UPPER 60S F ARE FORECAST. TOMORROW, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GUADALUPES, MAINTAINING
A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND PROMPTING ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN
FROM TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DROP HIGHS OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN A FEW DEGREES.
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT STILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND MID TO UPPER 60S F
WHILE THE DRYLINE RETROGRADES WEST AND ADVECTS MORE HUMID AIR OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MID-WEEK FOR
COOLER AND LESS WINDY WEATHER, AND UNTIL LATE WEEK BEFORE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FALL INTO
THE 50S IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, WHILE LOWS EVERYWHERE ELSE
GENERALLY COOL INTO THE 60S. WINDS REMAIN CALMER OVERALL TUESDAY
AS THE JET CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS PUSH TUESDAY'S HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S (MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND 90S. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SENDS A
COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 80S BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE
WITHIN THE PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REACH THE 90S IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTS IN LOW
(10-30%) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SWINGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE CURRENTLY EXISTS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER OUR EASTERN PORTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THESE INDICATE PWATS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1-2" OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
COINCIDING WITH BETTER LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM TRACK
AND ACTUAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LARGELY DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL, LOWER HEIGHTS AND
CLOUDY SKIES RESULT IN A COOLING TREND TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TERMINALS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS 15Z-20Z FOR
TERMINALS ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO UPPER
TRANS PECOS, AND UP TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS FOR TERMINALS ON THE EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS INTO LEA COUNTY AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO AND ABOVE 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z-03Z FOR TERMINALS
ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND TO AND ABOVE 25
KNOTS FOR TERMINALS ON THE SE NM PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS, THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS, AND HIGHER ERCS (70TH-89TH PERCENTILE) HAVE PROMPTED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS VALID THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER MONDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY, OTHER PARAMETERS SHALL BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR.
AS SUCH, ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY
AS WELL. TO AVOID CONFUSION, ONLY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWNWARD
AND MINRHS UPWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 96 63 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 93 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 97 70 98 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 97 63 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 83 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 87 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 64 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 94 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 95 62 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR EASTERN CULBERSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL LEA-NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...94
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