693
FXUS64 KMAF 270507
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THE REST OF TODAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO STRONG WINDS AND PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH STRONGER
WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A JET ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SW
US APPROACHES THE REGION. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE SEEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NM, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FOR THIS, HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES
INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR AND MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY NEAR AREAS WITH LITTLE VEGETATION. WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEP IT WARM AND DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
SETTLING IN THE 60S FOR MANY WITH 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WELL WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MANY AND LOW 100S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOW DESERT OF BIG BEND. WINDS BECOME MUCH LIGHTER
HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE DECREASED WINDS AND
PERSISTENT DRY AIR, CLOUD COVER KEEPS LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
60S FOR MANY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WINDS DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES FROM MONDAY'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY
MIDWEEK. THIS YIELDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOCATIONS OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES (10-30%)
RETURN TO MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
DUE TO MOIST ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND EXPAND AREAWIDE AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE NBM TENDS TO OVERESTIMATE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SEVERAL DAYS OUT DUE TO A WET BIAS. THUS, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS. THESE DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE AND THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY FRIDAY
EVENING, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CIGS, MVFR OR LOWER VIS IN REGIONS OF BLDU. WEST WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS DECREASE BELOW 15 KNOTS 09Z-12Z BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO AND ABOVE 25 KNOTS AT TERMINALS
14Z-17Z INTO 22Z-01Z. THEN, WINDS DECREASE BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST BY END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. CRITICAL (LOCALLY
EXTREME, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO) FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS, AND HIGHER ERCS (70TH-89TH PERCENTILE) HAVE PROMPTED US
TO CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS VALID THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAKER MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY,
OTHER PARAMETERS SHALL BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR. AS SUCH, ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, TO AVOID
CONFUSION (AND TO GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE DATA), HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NOW AND PASS THAT DECISION ON
TO THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWNWARD AND MINRHS UPWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 65 95 59 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 87 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 98 69 99 71 / 0 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 94 66 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 77 58 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 86 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 86 54 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 65 93 62 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA 89 65 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 91 60 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94
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