830
FXUS64 KMAF 271708
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LEADS TO
BREEZY WINDS (STRONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY OVER THE
SE NM AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, ALLOWING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MID 80S F, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA APART
FROM THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINS IN THE 90S F. WESTERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING DUST
AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER CULBERSON COUNTY AND SE NM, WHERE A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TODAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION). THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP EAST OF
THE AREA, PLAYING THE AREA IN DRY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 35F. HOWEVER, DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE INHIBITED AND
MAINTAIN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES BELOW 25 DEGREES, RESULTING IN
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S F BY TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING
WINDS VEER BACK TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE FROM THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RESUME, NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA ONLY OVER THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY WIND PRODUCTS, AND ONLY RFD
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F OVER SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S F
APART FROM 80S F ON THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING
AND AGAIN ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S F. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE SOON ON THE WAY, AND
WE'LL GET A REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WARM AND DRY WEATHER. MORE
DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK
CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN OVERALL
CALMER WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDS A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A COOLER AND
WETTER PERIOD FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO 80S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND THE BIG BEND REACH INTO THE 90S. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOW POPS TO TREND UPWARD WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS OF NOW, MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE A
CHANCE AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. LONG-RANGE MODELS DEPICT A CLOSED UPPER LOW
REACHING THE COAST OF SOCAL AND BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PROGRESSES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, OPENING UP AS IT DOES SO. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT. AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE
EAST THURSDAY GIVEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THESE FACTORS COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
AND TIMING WILL RELY HEAVILY ON STORM TRACK AND CHARACTERISTICS.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT PWATS BETWEEN 1-2" OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OF COURSE, WE SHALL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, REPLACED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT, THUS ENDING RAIN CHANCES.
REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL, CLOUD COVERAGE AND INCREASED MOISTURE SHALL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
LARGELY REACHING THE 60S SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND ENSUES ONCE THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AT MOST TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AT CNM, HOB, AND MAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
NEAR CRITICAL (LOCALLY CRITICAL OVER PORTIONS OF OF EDDY/LEA
COUNTIES) FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE GUADALUPE/ DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, THE SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS, THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND EASTERN CULBERSON
COUNTY VALID THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MINRHS IN THESE AREAS
SHALL FALL BELOW 15% AND COINCIDE WITH 20FT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND CONTINUED DRY FUELS (ERCS WITHIN THE 70TH-89TH PERCENTILE).
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ORIGINALLY ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO EXPECTED SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS LIMITING FIRE SPREAD. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWNWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 65 95 58 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 87 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 98 70 100 72 / 0 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 94 67 95 67 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 77 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 86 56 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 65 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 89 66 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 90 60 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11
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