246
FXUS64 KMAF 280522
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEARLY AREAWIDE.
MONITORING THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 17Z 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A 60KT JET
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT,
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND MORE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S
TO LOW 90S REGIONWIDE) ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS COINCIDING WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS YIELD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, AND THE EASTERN CULBERSON
COUNTY PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS
DISCOURAGED OVER THESE AREAS. TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND
BIG BEND REGION. MEANWHILE, LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
WARMER AND SIMILAR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TOMORROW. THE
DRYLINE STAYS FURTHER EAST SUPPLYING ENHANCED MIXING ACROSS THE
REGION. A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS BRINGS NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO VALLEY IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S. TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
WHICH LOOKS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
WEDNESDAY SEES THE PATTERN BEGIN TO SHIFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BRINGS IN
COOLER AIR AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. CLOUD COVER AND CAA KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MANY WITH 90S REMAINING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10.
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-
70%) RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT HAVE BROUGHT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A
RANGE OF PWAT VALUES NEAR THE DAILY RECORD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BETWEEN AN INCH TO 1.3".
WHILE POPS ARE HIGH AND GENERALLY WIDESPREAD, RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AND INTERMITTENT IN
NATURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MAINLY BE SEEN WITH BRIEF
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN IN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RAIN AMOUNTS,
HOWEVER, REMAIN FAR MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
BEST FORCING ENDS UP BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SE NM, WITH DIMINISHING AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE BY LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK GRADUALLY FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. BY FRIDAY, HIGHS IN THE
60S WILL BE SEEN FOR MOST WITH 70S AND 80S NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS
DIP INTO THE 40S NEARLY AREAWIDE SATURDAY MORNING WITH 60S FOR HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN THAT AFTERNOON. WARMTH BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. FOLLOWING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE PECOS RIVER ON THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD INTO 08Z-11Z THIS
MORNING, WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TERMINALS DEVELOP 14Z-17Z AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND ABOVE FOR
TERMINALS ON THE SE NM PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN DECREASE 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN WESTERLY INTO
END OF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON
TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S COMBINE
WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL RHS (<15%). A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THOSE CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM RHS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. FOR THIS,
ANOTHER RFD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. BEYOND TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY BRINGING
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEARLY AREAWIDE. WETTING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH OVERALL
HIGHER RHS AND RECOVERIES THAT SHOULD, IN THE NEAR TERM, IMPROVE THE
FUEL LANDSCAPE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 58 79 56 / 0 0 0 30
CARLSBAD 91 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN 99 72 96 66 / 0 10 10 40
FORT STOCKTON 96 67 92 63 / 0 0 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS 80 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 90 58 83 53 / 0 0 0 30
MARFA 87 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 93 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 30
ODESSA 92 63 85 59 / 0 0 0 30
WINK 94 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-MARTIN-VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CHAVES
PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21
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