161
FXUS64 KMAF 281743
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, PROMPTING A RED FLAG WARNING.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEARLY AREAWIDE.
MONITORING THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ON RADAR ACROSS BREWSTER AND
PECOS COUNTIES MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING DOWNWIND
NEAR THE BIG BEND, WITH MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN ALSO MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WE DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER GIVES WAY TO COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
(25% TO 35%) RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY AGAIN RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID TO UPPER 90S F, WITH THE DRYLINE DEVELOPING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP ALL BUT TERRELL COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PERMIAN BASIN IN A REGION OF 35F OR LESS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, WE CAN EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH, HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, WILL AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING
DUST OVER THE GUADALUPES INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, BUT IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). LOWS ONCE MORE FALL INTO
THE 50S TO MID 60S F TONIGHT AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITS OVERNIGHT COOLING AND THE DRYLINE RETROGRADES WEST INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA, BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT LIMITS OVERNIGHT COOLING
FARTHER WEST. TOMORROW, THE COOLING TREND BEGINS AS THE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP IN FROM THE
NORTH, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY. HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S F FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A RESULT. ADDITIONALLY, A
SUBTLE MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
RIPPLING EAST OVER THE BIG BEND TOMORROW AFTERNOON INCREASES LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT, INDUCING SHOWER/STORM FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME HIGH-RES CAMS SHOW NO SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL AND
NBM QPF GRIDS SHOW LITTLE TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, SO WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING RISK WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERE IS A CONTINUED 25% TO 35% CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE HUMID AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S F PERSISTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
LIMITS A SHARPER DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EVEN WITH CAA. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUED 20 TO 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S F. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK. READ THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES
TREND DOWNWARD AND RAIN CHANCES UPWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH THAT PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY DRIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHALL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE, ALLOWING FOR LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES
NEARLY AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 50S/60S.
THURSDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COASTS OF SOCAL
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MODELS DEPICT THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE
AND LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO ALSO TREND UPWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING, MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) POPS SPAN MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
THE BEST ODDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, AREAS NEAR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
IN WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN, LARGELY DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO DEPICT PWATS OF 1-1.3" OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
ITSELF, THE EXACT TIMING/ LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, AND RAINFALL
RATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THESE VARIABLES, THIS
SYSTEM WILL WARRANT FURTHER MONITORING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS IT STANDS, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL,
LOWER HEIGHTS, CLOUDY SKIES, AND INCREASED MOISTURE SEND TEMPERATURES
ON A DOWNWARD TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY
REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY, THEN 50S TO 60S ON FRIDAY (70S AND
80S IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SET IN OVER TEXAS SATURDAY, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
CNM, HOB, AND MAF DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE CIGS BELOW
3000FT AT MAF AND HOB GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OCCURRING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE NM. HIGHS SHALL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND COMBINE
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, CRITICAL RHS (<15%), AND ERCS ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE. AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE NM, THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN, AND THE GUADALUPE TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING
FOOTHILLS/PLAINS. WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS NEARLY AREAWIDE. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH OVERALL HIGHER
RHS AND RECOVERIES THAT SHOULD, IN THE NEAR TERM, IMPROVE THE FUEL
LANDSCAPE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 96 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 20
CARLSBAD 92 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN 99 72 94 67 / 0 0 20 30
FORT STOCKTON 96 67 92 64 / 0 0 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS 83 60 80 59 / 0 0 0 20
HOBBS 90 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 20
MARFA 88 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 95 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA 94 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 20
WINK 96 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-MARTIN-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11
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