472
FXUS64 KMAF 151723
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TODAY.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE, BREEZY WINDS
HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) ARE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO OFF THE COAST OF BAJA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA,
ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE SETS UP FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE (MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA) GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5-9.0
C/KM), SUFFICIENT DCAPE (>1000 J/KG), AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH SO DAMAGING
WINDS IS FAVORED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL WITH SOME STORMS. DRY LIGHTING MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD IGNITE A WILDFIRE
(MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). IN ADDITION,
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS CREATES A
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS
(STRONGER IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS YIELDS SIMILAR HIGHS TODAY AS
YESTERDAY'S.
BY SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES OR JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THIS
VERIFIES, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY FARTHER EAST
AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN
BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND SUNNY SKIES ALLOWS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY'S. AS SUCH, MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN (POTENTIALLY INCLUDING MIDLAND/ODESSA), TRANS PECOS, AND ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE LOOK TO SEE HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. SOME PORTIONS
IN THE BIG BEND CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS REACH UP TO 110 F.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF IT,
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY (PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF WEST TEXAS). THESE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS BETWEEN 105 TO 110
DEGREES PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN HEIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN PARTICULAR
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW
SUNDAY, BUT 10-20% CHANCES START TO SNEAK BACK TOWARDS OUR
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STAYS LARGELY NORTH OF
OUR AREA, GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES IT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A FRONT
OUR DIRECTION NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN (CURRENTLY IT APPEARS IT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY). IT ALSO
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT/STALL AS IT MOVES OUR WAY.
NEVERTHELESS, BY NEXT WEEK THE DRYLINE STARTS TO SET UP OVER OUR
AREA, ALLOWING BETTER-QUALITY MOISTURE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY. INCREASING MOISTURE, COUPLED
WITH PULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBLE
PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT, ALLOWS LOW-TO-MEDIUM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-50%) TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN
CHANCES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S WILL BECOME
COMMONPLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN OTHER WORDS, BY NEXT WEEK
THE PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO LOOK A BIT MORE REMINISCENT OF
SPRING.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VCSH ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TS DEVELOPS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING WILL BE AT FST AND
HOB SITES, WHILE TS PROB30S ARE IN PLACE ELSEWHERE DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PASSING BRIEF SHOWERS AND TS.
A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING BREEZY WINDS
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 68 100 70 / 20 30 0 0
CARLSBAD 97 63 99 64 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN 95 69 95 72 / 20 20 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 97 66 101 66 / 20 20 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 86 62 86 62 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 95 60 99 61 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 91 55 92 55 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 96 67 99 69 / 20 20 0 0
ODESSA 96 67 99 69 / 20 20 0 0
WINK 98 64 100 64 / 20 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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