752
FXUS64 KMAF 161714
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS BRING INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE (30-50% CHANCES, UP TO AROUND
60%) BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S. SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
(POTENTIALLY INCLUDING MIDLAND/ODESSA), THE TRANS PECOS, AND ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE CAN EXPECT TO SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS (BETWEEN 105 F
AND 110 F ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE BIG BEND) THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER DAY
OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND
LOWER TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (STRONGER IN THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). MEANWHILE, THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES OR JUST TO THE EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (<10% CHANCE).
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MOST (BETWEEN 105 AND 110 F IN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND). SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE STAYS
EAST AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 PERCENT.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN
STARTS TO BECOME SPRING-LIKE ONCE AGAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY. SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS HELPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
ACROSS THE REGION YET AGAIN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKEWISE
PERSIST ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
LOW POPS (10-20%) ATTEMPT TO SNEAK BACK INTO OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TUESDAY. AROUND THIS TIME,
A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS HELPS PUSH A
FRONT OUR DIRECTION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
STALL AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA. NEVERTHELESS, TEMPERATURES COOL
ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES RELATIVE TO MONDAY (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID
90S). MEANWHILE, MOISTURE INCREASE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE
DRYLINE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE WEST. THUS, RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE FOR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (10-
20%). BY WEDNESDAY, THE DRYLINE SETS UP EVEN FARTHER WEST, PULLING
MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN PARTICULAR.
PULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, POTENTIALLY
COUPLED WITH THE STALLING FRONT (DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS
UP), IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE AND BRING LOW-TO-
MODERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50% GENERALLY, UP TO
AROUND 60%) BACK TO THE REGION. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DAILY AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS FIXED OVER OUR
AREA. NATURALLY, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES,
AND MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUD
COVER HELPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW-TO-MID 80S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT TERMINALS BY
19Z-21Z, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE BUT REMAIN
SOUTHERLY 02Z-07Z, FURTHER DECREASING 09Z-12Z BEFORE WINDS AGAIN
INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 63 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 100 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 62 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 61 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 55 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 68 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...94
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