792
FXUS64 KMAF 170654
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 146 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
- HOT, BREEZY, AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE (30-70% CHANCES) BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. MONITORING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS ON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL KEEP
UP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. UNLIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF
TONIGHT AS CONTINUED BREEZINESS AND STAGNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE
COOLING INEFFICIENT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MANY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS, INCLUDING
MIDLAND/ODESSA, MAY SEE THEIR FIRST 100F DAY OF THE YEAR. THIS WOULD
BE A COUPLE WEEKS EARLY AS THE AVERAGE FIRST 100F DAY IN MIDLAND
OCCURS AROUND MAY 31ST. BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE IN THE AREA THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SOME PARTS OF THE
REGION SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL. AREAS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE ADDITION OF THE FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL GIVE SUPPORT TO A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE NEARBY
FRONT AND THE SPRING-TIME DRYLINE ACT AS FOCI FOR DAILY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICAL
FOR THE SPRING AND THERE VERY WELL COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SPECIFIC DETAILS OF TIMING, EXACT
HAZARDS, AND LOCATION REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOK TO END UP BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 80S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH, THIS HINGES ON THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVING OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST EACH NIGHT.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME GUSTY 16-02Z
SUNDAY AS HEATING MIXING THE BOUNDARY AIR CREATING LIGHT LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SPARSE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REACHING INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
ADJACENT WEST TEXAS SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH
THIS AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING
AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ERCS IN THE AREA RANGE FROM THE 75TH TO 90TH+ PERCENTILE AS
MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT IN AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY THAT WILL IMPROVE MOISTURE CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 98 70 100 69 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 95 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 72 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 66 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 84 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 95 61 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 90 54 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 96 69 99 68 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 96 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 97 64 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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