960
FXUS64 KMAF 180841
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE (40-80% CHANCES) BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WE WILL BE MONITORING A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR WILL MAKE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MORE INFORMATION ON THAT CAN
BE FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A NUMBER OF SPOTS NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK. WINDS WILL DECAY BY TONIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
STALLS NEAR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT AND PRESENT DRYLINE
COMBINE TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER FOR MOST COMPARED TO
TODAY, THOUGH WILL STILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HIGHS IN THE
100S WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY SEES AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DRYLINE MOVED
FURTHER WEST WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT HAZARDS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN AND JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND
WHERE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW AND A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID TO LATE
MAY. LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES HOLD ON FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD APPROACH MAF TO THE EAST NEAR 12Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 09-15Z BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
HENNIG
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
HAVE EXPANDED THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE MOST OF
CULBERSON COUNTY AS WELL AS ANDREWS COUNTY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, EXCEEDINGLY DRY CONDITIONS (BOTH A LACK OF RAINFALL
AND CRITICALLY LOW MIN RHS), AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THAT NOT ONLY AIDE IN FIRE SPREAD, BUT CAN ALSO BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. BEYOND
TODAY, CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RETURN ON TUESDAY, BUT
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE NEARBY DRYLINE SHARPENS ON
WEDNESDAY AND IS FORCED BACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BRINGING STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 71 90 61 / 0 10 30 40
CARLSBAD 94 63 94 61 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 102 73 97 68 / 0 0 30 20
FORT STOCKTON 100 67 98 64 / 0 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 93 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 91 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 69 93 62 / 0 0 10 30
ODESSA 97 69 93 63 / 0 0 10 30
WINK 98 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOVING-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
WINKLER.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page