744
FXUS64 KMAF 182024
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE (40-80% CHANCES) BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WE WILL BE MONITORING A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY A STRAY (10% TO 15%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, BEFORE A COOLING TREND AND INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TOMORROW. AS THE DRYLINE THAT
RETROGRADED AS FAR WEST AS THE BIG BEND INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND
LEA COUNTY THIS MORNING SURGES EAST, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP. THESE WINDS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND
ALONG WITH KEEPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER SE NM AND
PARTS OF W TX (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION), THE STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE 90S F, MID 80S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, TRIPLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, AND 105F TO 110F READINGS ONCE
MORE FOR THE BIG BEND. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER/STORM WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, THE
DRYLINE AGAIN RETROGRADES INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ACCOMPANIED INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN LIMIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING AND KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S F TO MID 70S F EAST
OF THE DRYLINE, WHILE DRIER AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE KEEPS LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F. LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 40%) RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOP LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES
WITHIN MID TO UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST PROVIDE LIFT AND FOCUSING OF MOISTURE FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS ANTICIPATED
INTO THE MORNING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WITH MORE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN MX PLATEAU INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, QUICKLY RENEWED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW, AND
THE DRYLINE ANCHORING OVER EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO BIG BEND NEAR THE STALLING COLD FRONT, LIFT AND FOCUSING OF
MOISTURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. UNLIKE TONIGHT, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW. SPC HAS EASTERN PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO
TERRELL COUNTY OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT RISK, WITH A MRGL RISK OVER THE
THE REST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS BIG BEND.
STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED
WITH MEDIUM (35% TO 50%) RAIN CHANCES OVER EASTERNMOST REGIONS AND
LOW (20% TO 35%) FARTHER WEST, UNLESS STORMS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO A
MORE NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OR LINEAR SEGMENTS. STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS
(ESPECIALLY IF STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR), AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM BACKED EASTERLY WINDS, A TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOST RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SEVERE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM TERRELL COUNTY IN TO THE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN. RAINFALL OF 0.25" TO 0.50" OVER EASTERNMOST PARTS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00" MAY POSE FLOODING CONCERNS
FOR LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
"COOLER" HUMID UPSLOPE FLOW, HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
F ARE FORECAST, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE. THESE
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT, WHILE INTERMITTENT
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAINTAIN LOW (20% TO 30%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF
OUR AREA AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES OVER LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING CONCERNS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY BRINGING LOWER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN LOW (10-20%)
POPS ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW MAY PIVOT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE TO KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TERMINALS FROM
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER 23Z-01Z.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST FOR TERMINALS ON PERMIAN BASIN AND
STOCKTON PLATEAU 00Z- 04Z THIS EVENING, AND FOR TERMINALS ON THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS 05Z-08Z TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO WESTERLY
THEREAFTER, THEN BACKING TO NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM 14Z INTO END OF THE PERIOD
TUESDAY MORNING. FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THERE
IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS ON THE
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXCEEDINGLY DRY CONDITIONS (BOTH
A LACK OF RAINFALL AND CRITICALLY LOW MIN RHS), AND BREEZY WINDS
WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEYOND TODAY, CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RETURN ON TUESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. THE NEARBY DRYLINE SHARPENS ON WEDNESDAY AND IS FORCED
BACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BRINGING STRONG MOISTURE
RETURN AND A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 70 90 60 78 / 0 40 20 60
CARLSBAD 63 94 60 84 / 0 0 30 60
DRYDEN 72 96 67 87 / 0 20 20 40
FORT STOCKTON 66 97 64 87 / 0 10 0 60
GUADALUPE PASS 60 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 50
HOBBS 58 90 56 75 / 0 0 30 80
MARFA 53 92 53 87 / 0 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 93 61 78 / 0 10 10 70
ODESSA 68 93 62 79 / 0 10 10 70
WINK 62 95 62 83 / 0 0 10 60
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDREWS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOVING-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WINKLER.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page