509
FXUS64 KMAF 191816
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
116 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, MAINLY FOR BIG BEND AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
LOW TO MID 100S.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. MAIN THREATS WILL
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WHERE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WILL MAKE TO THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. SHOULD IT STALL OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DRYLINE THAT HAS SETUP JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CITY OF PECOS. SHOULD THE FRONT MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH
BEFORE STALLING, STORMS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS OR
PORTIONS OF BIG BEND. NO MATTER WHERE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING. FORECAST HIGHS WILL ALSO BE UNCERTAIN AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN
REACH INTO THE 90S. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 80F.
BY TONIGHT, THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE DRYLINE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PULLED WESTWARD WITH THE DRYLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, FORECAST PWATS MOVE TO BETWEEN 1-1.3" EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THIS WOULD RANK NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MAY 20TH. THIS SPRING SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS AND RAIN KEEP IT COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, DAYTIME CONVECTION BEGINS TO DECAY
AND MOVE TO THE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, RAIN CHANCES TAKE A HIT AND WILL BE LOW (10-
40%) OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AND THE DRYLINE TO AIDE IN SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS PATTERN IN THE AREA THROUGH THIS COMING
WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THOUGH THIS WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME
WOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE MAINTAINED A PROB30
MENTION OF TSRA AT KFST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. VFR GENERALLY REMAINS PREVALENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
NEAR KMAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 59 77 60 / 40 10 40 60
CARLSBAD 90 61 83 59 / 0 10 30 30
DRYDEN 95 66 84 64 / 30 30 40 80
FORT STOCKTON 94 63 85 61 / 10 10 60 60
GUADALUPE PASS 84 60 79 58 / 0 10 20 20
HOBBS 85 55 75 55 / 0 10 40 40
MARFA 91 53 86 51 / 0 0 20 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 88 60 77 60 / 10 10 50 60
ODESSA 89 61 78 61 / 10 10 50 60
WINK 91 61 82 60 / 0 10 40 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21
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