663
FXUS64 KMAF 192023
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS. LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER), DAMAGING
WINDS (UP TO 70 MPH), AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JUST EAST OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS OF 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE ENDED UP LOWERING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG ALONG AND JUST OF
THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND TO THE EAST OF
THE TRAILING DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
GROWTH AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE LOCATIONS. LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2"+ IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE MODES WITH ANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LOWER, BUT STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BY MID
TO LATE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AS WELL AS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TO THE TRANS PECOS.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE (50-70%) OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, THE TRANS PECOS, AND BIG
BEND. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND WHERE
LARGE HAIL OVER GOLFBALL SIZE (POTENTIALLY 2"+) WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT TO
OUR EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
HAVE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND 80S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION, EXCEPT 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES OR JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER BAJA,
LEAVING THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP, BUT THE BEST CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCES (10-30%)
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS US UNDER A SIMILAR PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH THE HELP OF UPSLOPE FLOW),
YIELDING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL TOTALS, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE REMNANT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 80S (90S IN MANY SPOTS ON FRIDAY) FOR MOST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE 50S AND 60S EACH NIGHT.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE MAINTAINED A PROB30
MENTION OF TSRA AT KFST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. VFR GENERALLY REMAINS PREVALENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
NEAR KMAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 59 77 60 81 / 10 40 60 40
CARLSBAD 61 83 59 88 / 10 30 30 20
DRYDEN 66 84 64 85 / 30 40 80 30
FORT STOCKTON 63 85 61 87 / 10 60 60 30
GUADALUPE PASS 60 79 58 81 / 10 20 20 10
HOBBS 55 75 55 82 / 10 40 40 30
MARFA 53 86 51 82 / 0 20 40 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 77 60 82 / 10 50 60 30
ODESSA 61 78 61 82 / 10 50 60 30
WINK 61 82 60 86 / 10 40 50 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21
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