089
FXUS64 KMAF 201140
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HAS WASHED OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND WILL BE ONE OF THE
CATALYSTS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP
SOME STORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF SHEAR, 1000-2000J/KG OF MUCAPE, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE MOST ORGANIZED
STORMS. HI-RES ENSEMBLES SHOW ACTIVITY GETTING AN EARLY START ON THE
DAY AROUND OR JUST AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS/PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND MOVING EAST INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OR LINES OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
DAYTIME HIGHS TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH OUT OF THE 70S AS LOW CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING
MUCH. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT, MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S WITH 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
TONIGHT SEES A LULL IN CONVECTION AS THE DAYTIME ACTIVITY DECAYS OR
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE DRYLINE ESTABLISHES ITSELF WEST OF
MIDLAND/ODESSA NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER. THE DRYLINE'S
POSITION AND ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY WILL IMPACT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY. COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE LOWER
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE WEAKER
FOR THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY THOUGH, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FROM
REAGAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PECOS AND PORTIONS OF
TERRELL COUNTY THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, BUT INCREASE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT SEES ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN DECAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST OF OUR AREA. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A SIMILAR PATTERN
CONTINUES WHERE DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
DRYLINE SETS UP IN THE CWA AND THE TIMING OF ANY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS OCCURRING ROUGHLY EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
UNSURPRISINGLY, RIO GRANDE VILLAGE AND THE SURROUNDING LOW DESERT OF
BIG BEND MAY STILL REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON THOSE DAYS, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE FOR LATE MAY. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF EACH DAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EVENING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NEAR MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AT MOST TERMINALS AND
WILL BE A FIXTURE FOR THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OR DISSIPATING.
TS/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT ALL SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EASTERLY FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
10-15KTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY NEARBY
CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 59 81 61 / 60 50 30 10
CARLSBAD 82 59 90 60 / 30 30 10 10
DRYDEN 84 64 86 65 / 50 50 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 83 61 88 63 / 50 50 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 79 59 81 59 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS 73 55 84 56 / 60 20 20 10
MARFA 85 52 82 50 / 40 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 60 83 62 / 70 30 10 10
ODESSA 75 60 84 63 / 70 30 10 10
WINK 80 60 88 61 / 50 30 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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