845
FXUS64 KMAF 202303
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STAGNANT WITHIN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL, FLASH FLOODING, AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AREA TO
MONITOR FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND
THE UPPER AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS. THUS FAR, SCATTERED STORM
ACTIVITY IS ONGOING WITHIN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WITH AT
LEAST PEA TO HALF INCH SIZED HAIL HAVING BEEN REPORTED AT KMAF
AROUND MIDDAY. AS PER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS CURRENT
CLUSTER OF STORMS SHALL CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE WITHIN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING OUR REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THIS BEING THE CASE, STAY WEATHER AWARE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY!
TONIGHT, SHOWERS/STORMS TRACK EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER, WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SWINGS OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. THE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO SET UP JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM
BORDER, NEAR THE WESTERN REACHES OF OUR REGION, BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SET UP, ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS
GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO TODAY. RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RANGE FROM 10-40%, WITH THE BEST ODDS OVER
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. AGAIN, ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ALSO INCREASES
THURSDAY DUE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND
80S ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, LOWS
THURSDAY FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. PLACEMENT WILL DEPEND ON
THE COLLOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS
INTO TEXAS AND BECOMES A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW, ALLOWING LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO STAY IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
DURING THE AFTERNOONS, THEN COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE, AS HIGHS REACH NEAR TO ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
MOST AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL MOST TERMINALS AT LEAST THIS EVENING, IF
NOT OVERNIGHT, SCATTERING OUT TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT 6 HOURS OR LESS, MAINLY
TEXAS TERMINALS. RETURN FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 58 78 59 91 / 50 30 20 10
CARLSBAD 58 88 59 93 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 63 84 63 90 / 50 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON 60 85 62 92 / 40 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 57 80 58 82 / 30 10 0 0
HOBBS 54 81 55 91 / 30 20 10 0
MARFA 50 81 50 84 / 30 30 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 80 60 91 / 40 30 10 10
ODESSA 59 81 61 91 / 40 20 10 0
WINK 59 85 59 92 / 30 20 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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