781
FXUS64 KMAF 211745
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
- DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THEY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. FOR TODAY, THE
DRYLINE WILL SET UP IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION. COINCIDENTALLY, A STALLED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THIS SETUP, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE (20- 40%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A STORM
OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AS MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY BRINGS A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT TO CONSIDER WILL BE FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL ALONG WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES, SIGNALING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S AND 80S.
TONIGHT, A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN STORE AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY KEEP A COUPLE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND CONFINED OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE LONG TERM FEATURES WEAK MID TO UPPER RIDGING TRANSITIONING TO
MID-LEVEL CLOSED TROUGHING INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK THAT MAINTAINS
MODERATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THE
WEAKNESS IN RIDGING THIS WEEKEND AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING
THE CLOSED LOW NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR PASSING MID TO UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES FOCUSING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ALIGNMENT WITH NEAR
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE 20% TO 45% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S F, UPPER 90S F RIO GRANDE BASINS,
AND TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE BIG BEND, WHILE LOWS LARGELY SETTLE INTO
THE 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND 60S F ELSEWHERE APART FROM UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE DRYLINE WILL OSCILLATE
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT GENERALLY WE CAN EXPECT HUMID
AIR OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY, MODERATELY
DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SE NM PLAINS, REST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN,
INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO THE RIO
GRANDE, WITH DRIEST (LOWEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES) OVER WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM. MOST REGIONS CAN ALSO EXPECT TO
SEE LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY HUMID UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ALLOW
REGIONS EAST OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TO PICK UP AT LEAST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, AND UP TO AN 1" OR MORE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK (55% TO 75% CHANCE).
HOWEVER, DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FORCED MAINLY
BY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AND TOPOGRAPHY AT THE SURFACE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTERED TS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH MORE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR PROB30 AT MAF/FST THOUGH TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT INK
AND PEQ. EXPECT MOSTLY SHRA/TS WITH LTG AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE EITHER BECOME VFR OR
WILL BECOME VFR VERY SHORTLY AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS. LIGHT MIST LOWERING VIS TO 3-5SM IS POSSIBLE NEAR 12Z BUT
NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 79 60 91 63 / 30 30 10 20
CARLSBAD 89 59 93 60 / 20 0 0 0
DRYDEN 83 63 90 66 / 30 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 86 62 92 64 / 40 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 80 58 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 82 55 91 57 / 30 20 0 0
MARFA 81 50 84 53 / 20 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 81 61 91 64 / 30 20 10 10
ODESSA 82 61 91 64 / 30 20 0 10
WINK 86 59 93 62 / 20 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10
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