527
FXUS64 KMAF 220405
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. A STORM OR TWO
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NM SOUTH TOWARD THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. STORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY ENDING AROUND, OR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THEN SLIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE DRYLINE SETS UP WITHIN THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN, EXTENDING DOWN TOWARD THE BIG BEND. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER OUR REGION, EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US. AS SUCH, ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, WHERE RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 10-
20%. GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS AND SUNNIER SKIES OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN RANGE WITHIN HE 50S TO 60S, WITH
60S BEING MORE PREVALENT THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS WITHIN THE MID LEVELS AND SETS UP OVER TEXAS. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES LOOK TO TRAVERSE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, THE DRYLINE ALSO LOOKS TO
OSCILLATE NEAR TO WITHIN OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LIFT FROM BOTH THE SHORTWAVES AND ALONG THE DRYLINE SHALL
COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT MOST AFTERNOONS. STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON COLLOCATION OF FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES
AND THE DRYLINE. AS SUCH, THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE
WITHIN THE 80S TO 90S ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON, THEN DIP
INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT KHOB, DUE TO LOCAL CONVECTION. WE'LL
KEEP THIS GOING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO
SW FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 68 59 90 61 / 0 30 20 20
CARLSBAD 89 58 93 59 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 92 63 90 65 / 0 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 87 61 91 63 / 0 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 78 58 82 60 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 81 55 91 57 / 0 20 0 0
MARFA 78 49 84 52 / 0 20 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 79 60 90 63 / 0 20 0 10
ODESSA 83 60 89 63 / 0 20 0 10
WINK 88 59 93 62 / 0 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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