671
FXUS64 KMAF 220635
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
135 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN STORE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, POSING A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WHICH BROUGHT MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%) CHANCES OF DAILY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR TODAY, THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
ISOLATED STORMS EXIST OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. A STORM OR TWO MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, THANKS TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUFFICIENT
WIND SHEAR, AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. TONIGHT, A
SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS IN STORE AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY KEEP A COUPLE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO MID 60S.
SATURDAY, GUIDANCE HAS MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL SEND THE DRYLINE FARTHER
WESTWARD NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER BRINGING MORE AVAILABLE SURFACE
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN, AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. CAMS INDICATE SIMILAR
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS, THEREFORE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS,
SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AN UNSETTLED MID TO UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
F, UPPER 90S F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE BIG
BEND DURING THE DAY, 50S TO MID 60S F OVERNIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY AS A DRYLINE AT THE SURFACE OSCILLATES AND SEPARATES MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE EAST (CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND 60S F) FROM DRIER AIR TO THE WEST (CHARACTERIZED BY
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F). EACH MORNING, A
CHANCE OF FOG/MIST AND REDUCE VISIBILITY EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE HUMID, SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND NIGHT, WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH FOUND MAINLY OVER THE EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS INTO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. AS WEAK
RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE 25% TO 35% OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO 45% TO 60% OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING RESUMES. AT THIS
TIME, NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
INADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZING LONG-LIVED STORMS. HOWEVER, REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE IS A 25% TO 40% CHANCE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK OF RAINFALL 0.25" TO 0.75" AND LOCALLY UP TO 1" (20% TO 30%
CHANCE) OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND TERRELL COUNTY INTO EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. ADDITIONALLY, DRY LIGHTNING WILL ADD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT KHOB, DUE TO LOCAL CONVECTION. WE'LL
KEEP THIS GOING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO
SW FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 90 62 87 60 / 10 10 20 10
CARLSBAD 93 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 90 65 87 63 / 20 10 40 10
FORT STOCKTON 91 63 89 60 / 10 0 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 82 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 91 57 88 57 / 0 0 20 10
MARFA 84 52 83 50 / 0 10 30 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA 89 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 10
WINK 93 62 91 61 / 0 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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