265
FXUS64 KMAF 051716
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
- A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS
PECOS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OUT OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LARGELY DIMINISH BY
SUNRISE. LIFT FROM A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES, FOLLOWED BY THE
MAIN UPPER-LOW SYSTEM, WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 20-50% ACROSS OUR REGION,
WITH THE BEST (40-50%) ODDS OVERLAYING AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS. GIVEN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ALOFT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S TO 60S, AND THE
FACT THAT MANY PARTS OF OUR REGION HAVE ALREADY SEEN BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A PRIMARY CONCERN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, A
COUPLE OF STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN WEST TO EAST, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER WEST TEXAS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED NEAR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR MORE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS 20-50% RAIN CHANCES
SPREAD OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. AGAIN,
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HOWEVER, A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. ASIDE FROM
RAINFALL, LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHALL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH 80S FOR
ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY COOL INTO
THE 60S, THEN WARM INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AGAIN SATURDAY. OUR WARMEST
SPOTS WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
BRINGING RAIN/STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BRINGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOOT BACK INTO IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE. LOWS EACH NIGHT REMAIN SIMILAR RANGING
FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S REGIONWIDE. THE NEXT NOTABLE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES (10-20%) RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WHICH MAY BRING FURTHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO SOME PARTS
OF THE REGION. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES
PREVALENT LATE NEXT WEEK ON THE POSITIONING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE EXTENT OF THESE CHANCES REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT ALL SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 85 67 94 / 50 50 20 0
CARLSBAD 64 90 65 100 / 30 10 0 0
DRYDEN 67 90 69 96 / 40 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 89 67 99 / 40 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 81 64 89 / 30 10 0 0
HOBBS 61 85 62 96 / 30 10 10 0
MARFA 53 84 55 93 / 20 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 85 67 94 / 50 20 10 0
ODESSA 64 85 67 95 / 50 10 10 0
WINK 64 88 67 99 / 30 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...93
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