688
FXUS64 KMAF 051734
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL POSE
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOW-LYING, SLOPED, AND POOR
DRAINAGE REGIONS AND MAKE ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE IN SOME SPOTS.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY LATE WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THE MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER BAJA CA WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MX TODAY AND
DEVELOP NORTHEAST. THE LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTING WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE
FROM LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN 1 HR POPS 25% TO 45% DEVELOPING FROM
THE MARFA PLATEAU INTO SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DOWN TO TERRELL
COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND 3 HR POPS 35% TO 55%
SURROUNDED BY 3 HR POPS 25% TO 35% FROM THE GUADALUPES INTO SE NM
PLAINS. PWATS REMAIN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGING FROM AT LEAST 1.00" TO 1.20" THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, SO
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS, DROPPING AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AND UP
TO 0.50" TO 1.00" WHERE HEAVIER AND/OR MORE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
THIS WILL AGAIN POSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR REGIONS WITH
SOILS THAT HAVE BEEN SATURATED BY PREVIOUS DAYS' RAINFALL, AS WELL
AS THE USUAL LOW-LYING, SLOPED, AND POOR DRAINAGE REGIONS. CAPE
500-1000 J/KG, DCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG, LOW RH IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE, AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE
FREEZING LAYER BENEATH LAYER OF MAXIMUM VERTICAL VELOCITY ALOFT
SUGGEST STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, WEST/SOUTHWEST EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR REMAINING WEAK (<25 KNOT) WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
LONGEVITY OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS, AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA
OUTLOOKED IN A REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY STAY IN THE
80S F, 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR MOST REGIONS, WHILE HUMID,
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAINTAIN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S F EAST OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 7-8 C/KM WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE THIS EVENING, AND SRH MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE ABOVE 80 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS A LANDSPOUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR ELEVATED TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY RISK WILL REMAIN HEAVY RAIN WITHIN WEAK (<15 KNOT)
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, AND SEVERE CONVECTIVE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE MINIMIZED BY HIGHER CLOUD BASES
OWING TO INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. 3HR POPS OF 25% TO 45% PERSIST
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AS HIGH-RES
CAMS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THOSE
REGIONS TONIGHT. OF NOTE, ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
MESSY STORM MODE NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU TODAY AND A MORE
CLUSTERED STORM MODE OVER THE SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN INTO EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT. LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S F ONCE MORE AS THE HUMID AIR LIMITS OVERNIGHT
COOLING.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE DEVELOP FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, PLACING ONLY THE
EASTERNMOST STOCKTON PLATEAU AND EASTERNMOST PERMIAN BASIN EAST
OF THE MIDLAND-ODESSA METRO IN A REGION OF 3 HR POPS 35% TO 55%,
WITH A STEEP CUTOFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 3 HR POPS REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR
STORM MODE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN LATER IN THE DAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 0.50" AND HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN
STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO EASTERNMOST PERMIAN BASIN ARE INDICATED,
WITH PONDING OF WATER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN USUAL REGIONS
PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL INCLUDE ROADWAYS. REMEMBER, IF
YOU THINK YOU CANNOT CROSS WATER, TRUST YOUR INSTINCT. TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN. SPC HAS TERRELL COUNTY INTO EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN IN A MRGL RISK TOMORROW, MAINLY DUE TO ENHANCED VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE OF STORMS ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
EVEN AS LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ALONG WITH A LANDSPOUT NEAR FAVORABLE STORM/TERRAIN BOUNDARIES
GIVEN ADEQUATE SRH IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. CLEARING SKIES AS MID TO
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F, 90S F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE BASIN, WHILE REMAINING IN THE 70S F FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT FALL TO SIMILAR VALUES AS
TONIGHT, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERNMOST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE HUMID AIR
ONLY ENTRENCHES ITSELF MORE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST REGIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HUMID AIR IS NOT GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON.
READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WITH NEAR ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND: BUT
REMAINING HUMID OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL
COUNTY. THAT WILL BE THE STORY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SUNDAY QUICKLY RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S F, UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND PRESIDIO
VALLEY, AND 105F-110F FOR THE BIG BEND. WHILE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DRYLINE DECREASE AS WESTERLY WINDS WEST
OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE REDEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADVECT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S F BACK INTO
THE REGION, 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINTAIN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S F TO THE EAST, KEEPING A
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE DESPITE THE NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. WITH
HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT STRUGGLE TO FALL
BELOW 65F EVERYWHERE NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO
TERRELL COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY, AND STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE THE MID 70S F FROM THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND. MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND
ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS MONDAY, ALLOWING
THE ZONE OF 100S F TEMPERATURES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SE NM PLAINS
AND UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND 105F-110F TEMPERATURES TO EXPAND INTO
THE PRESIDIO VALLEY FROM THE BIG BEND. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. ALL OF
THIS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY INTO BIG BEND, WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. LOWS
STAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A MID TO UPPER WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW DEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINNING TUESDAY, ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO ONCE AGAIN
CLIP THE REGION AS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH STILL VERY WARM HIGHS
(IN THE 90S F, LOWER 100F EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS
AS WELL AS PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND) TO RETURN. LOW 15% TO
25% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN/VALLEY BREEZES
INTERACT WITH LEE TROUGHING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT PROVIDE
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES, SETUP OF
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES, AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
STORM/TERRAIN INTERACTIONS MEAN THAT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 90S F FOR MOST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, WHEN HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F AND ABOVE RETURN. LOWS STAY
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F, AND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA
PLATEAU, GUADALUPES, UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND MARFA PLATEAU ARE
EXPECTED IN A LLJ TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGHING/DRYLINE. SO AS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MAINTAINS A SUMMER-LIKE HOT
AND HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR, IT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A LATE SPRING-
LIKE WIND PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT ALL SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 85 67 94 / 50 50 20 0
CARLSBAD 64 90 65 100 / 30 10 0 0
DRYDEN 67 90 69 96 / 40 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 63 89 67 99 / 40 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 81 64 89 / 30 10 0 0
HOBBS 61 85 62 96 / 30 10 10 0
MARFA 53 84 55 93 / 20 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 85 67 94 / 50 20 10 0
ODESSA 64 85 67 95 / 50 10 10 0
WINK 64 88 67 99 / 30 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page