947
FXUS64 KMAF 061124
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WILL POSE THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS. A STORM OR TWO MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS. THIS HAS BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
AND EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. TODAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, GUIDANCE HAS THE DRYLINE SHARPENING UP
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER PROVIDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
(20-40%) OF RAIN/STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN. MODERATELY UNSTABLE INSTABILITY (1500-2500
J/KG), SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. LANDSPOUTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT HIGH 3CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH 0-3KM STORM-
RELATIVE HELICITY ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES REMAIN
PREVALENT, BRINGING A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS WELL. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE,
THEREFORE, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS THANKS
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOOT BACK INTO IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE. LOWS EACH NIGHT REMAIN
SIMILAR RANGING FROM THE 60S TO MID 70S REGIONWIDE. THE NEXT
NOTABLE RAIN/STORM CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH MAY BRING FURTHER
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO SOME PARTS OF THE REGION. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS
AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PREVALENT LATE NEXT WEEK ON THE
POSITIONING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE
EXTENT OF THESE CHANCES REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING, BUT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER A FEW OF OUR SITES. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
SHALL PREVAIL, ALONG WITH LIGHT, SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 86 66 96 71 / 50 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 90 65 101 69 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 92 69 99 72 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 67 100 70 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 82 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 84 62 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 86 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 67 97 70 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 86 67 97 71 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 89 67 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...95
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