727
FXUS64 KMAF 071716
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TODAY CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
STORMY CONDITIONS COME TO AN END FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED
OVER KANSAS. WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH, A MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND STEERS WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION SENDS TODAY'S
HIGHS SOARING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR REGION,
ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAY'S HIGHS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS,
AND WITHIN THE BIG BEND, GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BIG BEND ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR 110
DEGREES. TONIGHT, BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING LOWS INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. MONDAY, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH
GRADUALLY SLIDE OVER OUR AREA, HEADED EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS HIGHS
BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK TO EXPAND INTO MORE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SOME AREAS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 105-111 DEGREE
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STAYS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW
100S DUE TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALOFT PRODUCING CLOUD COVER, THUS
REDUCING DAYTIME HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM FORMING
NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS. BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION, KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE IN A SIMILAR POSITION.
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FROM THE FLOW ALOFT YIELD LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES NEARING
THE 90-99TH PERCENTILE ACROSS AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, SIGNALING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS (EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY) WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LOWS EACH NIGHT SPAN IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
BE PREVALENT AT KHOB, KMAF, KINK, AND KFST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS AT KCNM AND KPEQ. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS OVER MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT KCNM AND KPEQ) THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 69 104 71 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 100 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 101 70 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 91 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 99 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 94 59 96 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 101 71 102 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21
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