394
FXUS64 KMAF 071829
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
129 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HEAT RELATED CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 100-108 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES AND
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO REACH
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BEND/LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRYLINE. OTHER VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE 10% OR LESS. HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA, AND EVEN HOTTER IN
THE 100-105 DEGREES RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND PERHAPS UP TO
105-111 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THESE VALUES WILL FALL JUST
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WE STILL ENCOURAGE EVERYONE
TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN
OUTDOORS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH A QUASI-ZONAL MID
TO UPPER AIR PATTERN RESULTING IN DISTURBANCES ALOFT CLIPPING THE
EDGES OUR CWA. THESE DISTURBANCES PROVIDING LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A DIFFUSE TROUGHING/DRYLINE
BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEAK FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE LEE
TROUGHING AND LIGHTER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE LEE
TROUGHING TO RESULT IN 25% TO 35% POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. PWATS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND, IN THE 1.00" TO 1.20"
RANGE AT LEAST. THEREFORE, ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING PROVIDED BY RIDGING
ALOFT, HIGHS IN THE 90S F, 100F-105F RANGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EACH AFTERNOON, AND ADDITIONALLY
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO TRANS PECOS AS WELL AS NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 105F-110F RANGE FOR THE BIG BEND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S F
EAST OF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SE NM PLAINS, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS SAME BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED 15 TO 25
MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS DOWNSLOPE OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN EACH NIGHT
WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING AND KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A COOLING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURS AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO EVEN MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL AIR
PATTERN AND ALLOWS MORE DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.
AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS INCREASES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF JUST THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN, SO WHILE PWATS ARE FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DECREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A RISK IN STORMS, BUT OVER A WIDER AREA. HOWEVER, THIS FAR
OUT, DETAILS REGARDING TIMING, PRIMARY STORM MODE AND INITIATION
REGIONS, AND EXACT IMPACTS OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN UNCLEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
BE PREVALENT AT KHOB, KMAF, KINK, AND KFST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS AT KCNM AND KPEQ. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS OVER MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT KCNM AND KPEQ) THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 97 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 69 104 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 98 73 95 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 70 100 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 67 100 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 59 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 97 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 71 98 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 71 102 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21
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