264
FXUS64 KMAF 081135
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HEAT RELATED CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 100-108 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA TODAY, KEEPING
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S, IF NOT A TOUCH WARMER, RANGING IN THE
UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK
LOOK TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS, AND THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THOSE NEAR AND ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE, WHILE SOME AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOAR INTO THE 105-112
DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TEMPERATURES FALL
JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT'S BEST TO STAY HYDRATED AND
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. DESPITE
RIDGING ALOFT, THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST, UPSLOPE
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW (<15%) RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS,
PRIMARILY IN AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST
OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES. TUESDAY'S
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S TO 100S, BUT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
LOOKS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVER
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION,
WHILE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, TROUGHING WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES FROM THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST YIELDS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF
STORMS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
RANGING FROM THE 75TH TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS POSES A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS (EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY) WHERE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. OTHER THAN THAT, SUMMER-LIKE HEAT
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN SPOTS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND RIO GRANDE WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES. AS A
RESULT, HEAT RELATED CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (MAINLY MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST
WITH 100-108 DEGREES ALONG PECOS RIVER AND RIO GRANDE LOCATIONS)
ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKS DOWN.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT MOST SITES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MAF EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO BR.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOWER
CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 104 71 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 98 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 101 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 100 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 95 59 93 62 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 103 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...95
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