408
FXUS64 KMAF 081937
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HEAT RELATED CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 100-108 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- MORE SEASONABLE BUT STILL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IS IN PLACE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE
LINE TO THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR THE
I-10/20 SPLIT TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
VICINITY OF LEA COUNTY NM INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
PLACED 10-20% STORM CHANCES OVER THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, AND UP TO
100-105 DEGREES ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND 105-110 DEGREES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HUMID
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN OR LOWER TRANS PECOS TUESDAY, BUT
POPS REMAIN BELOW 15% AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH THE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
BUT HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 90S, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE PECOS VALLEY UP TO AROUND 102 DEGREES AND UP
TO 103-108 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
A HOT AND HUMID TWO DAYS AHEAD ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER PERSISTS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY, TRIPLE
DIGITS WILL BE WIDESPREAD NOT JUST OVER THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND
AND ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE BASINS OF CULBERSON
COUNTY AND SE NM PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. MIDLAND-
ODESSA MIGHT JUST GET THEIR FIRST 100F DAY OF THE YEAR. 105F-110F
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG
BEND, AS WELL AS RIGHT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS RISE INTO
THE 90S F. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F WILL
KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH TO POSE HAZARDOUS HEAT RISK
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS. WEAK MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND HEATING OF
ELEVATED TERRAIN INTERACTING WITH A DIFFUSE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY
OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW 25% TO 45% POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU. WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ALLOWING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S F AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH 20 TO 25 MPH
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN A LLJ, OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE LIMITED
AND LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F RANGE, AND
MAY NOT FALL BELOW 80F FOR THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND.
THURSDAY, SAME DEAL BUT EVEN WARMER. IN FACT, THURSDAY IS ON TRACK
TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY SO FAR THIS SUMMER,
WITH TRIPLE DIGITS READINGS EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, INCLUDING THE MIDLAND-ODESSA REGION. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER AS RIDGING BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS AND PROVIDES MORE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDING AIR AND WARMING AND DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN. WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE MARFA PLATEAU INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS, HEAT
ADVISORIES, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS MAY NEEDED OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT STAY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
AFTER RIDGING BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS MID-WEEK, IT AGAIN WEAKENS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ACCOMPANYING DECREASE IN
SUBSIDING WINDS WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PWATS WILL NOT
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL NEXT WEEK, SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A RISK IN USUAL POOR
DRAINAGE AND SLOPED TERRAIN REGIONS. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO
SEASONABLE: IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S F, TRIPLE DIGITS CONFINED TO
THE RIO GRANDE, AND MID TO UPPER 80S F FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
STILL, LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES OVER
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. OVER THE
WEEKEND, POPS REMAIN HIGHER THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK AREAWIDE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, SINCE A COLD FRONT AND BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE FINALLY SEE INDICATIONS OF THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE AREA, DECREASING HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
F FOR REGIONS SUCH AS LEA COUNTY AND THE PERMIAN BASIN, WHICH
HAVE NOT SEEN HIGHS AS LOW AS THAT SINCE LAST WEEK. COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS, WIDESPREAD LOW (25% TO 35%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, MODELS
INDICATING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN REGIONS OF HIGHER POPS, AND
COOLING OUTFLOW PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY ALL HELP
TO PUSH LOWS BACK DOWN BELOW 70F FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU. EVEN SO, THIS FAR OUT THE FORECAST
AFTER FRIDAY IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, DEPENDING ON HOW THE
UPPER AIR AND SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TRANS PECOS, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND TRANS PECOS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KMAF STARTING AROUND
12Z. BREEZY S/SE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 92 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 100 71 105 / 0 10 0 10
DRYDEN 73 95 73 99 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 70 96 71 103 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 67 94 67 102 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 59 93 62 96 / 10 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 91 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 71 92 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 71 97 71 104 / 10 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21
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