866
FXUS64 KMAF 100528
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- DAYTIME 25% TO 35% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR REGIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, PECOS RIVER VALLEY, AND OVER
THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEASONABLE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VIS/IR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICTED LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE NM PLAINS AND EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU
INTO PERMIAN BASIN. THESE CLOUDS ARE THINNING OUT NOW WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, AS HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S F, WITH
UPPER 90S F TO TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND RIO GRANDE BASIN, AND 105F+ HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE BIG BEND. 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A STRAY (5%
TO 15%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS ARE EXPECTED AS A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM DEVELOPS INTO W TX AND PROVIDES LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT INTERACTS WITH HEATING OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN. FOLLOWING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS, POPS QUICKLY DROP OFF
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE MID 50S TO 60S F RANGE AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
IN THE LLJ. THIS WILL MEAN LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F ONCE
AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER AS THE
MID TO UPPER RIDGE THAT SLID EAST OF THE AREA BUILDS BACK WEST,
WITH ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING AND DRYING. HIGHS RISE INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS NOT JUST ALONG THE USUAL WARM SPOTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN, BASINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY, AND PECOS RIVER VALLEY,
BUT ALSO THE REST OF THE SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN. 105F-110F HIGHS FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY INTO UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL POSE A RISK OF HAZARDOUS
HEAT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHERE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, APPARENT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A HAZARDOUS HEAT RISK FOR THOSE REGIONS AS
WELL. HAZARDOUS HEAT EVERYWHERE WILL STILL FALL UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT REGIONS THAT COME CLOSEST TO MEETING CRITERIA WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE (PRESIDIO VALLEY, BIG BEND),
FOLLOWED BY CULBERSON COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO SE NM
PLAINS, AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. THE MIDLAND-ODESSA REGION
COULD ALSO SEE THEIR FIRST 100F DAY FOR THIS YEAR, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 99F ARE ONLY 30% AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF
EXACT TEMPERATURES, IT'S GOING TO BE HOT, AND WE ADVISE PEOPLE TO
LIMIT TIME SPENT OUTDOORS, REMAIN IN AIR CONDITIONED FACILITIES,
AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, POSTPONING ANY PHYSICAL ACTIVITY TO
LATER IN THE EVENING. STRONGER HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN
INTERACTING WITH A MORE POTENT RIPPLE OF DISTURBANCES DRIFTING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW 25% TO 35%
POPS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU. AS PWATS REMAIN AT LEAST 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE 1.00" TO 1.20" RANGE, BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A RISK WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. JUST LIKE ON
TUESDAY, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY
NIGHTFALL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S F AND THERE IS A HIGH (75% TO 85%) CHANCE OF LOWS NOT EVEN
FALLING BELOW 80F FOR THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY, BUT A COOLDOWN OF SORTS IS
ON THE WAY. READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
HIGHS THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY ARE IN STORE
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WARM AND DRY THE AIR COLUMN. NEAR CRITERIA HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT FOR THE SAME REGIONS AS ON WEDNESDAY, AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE HEAT SAFETY ADVICE, SUCH AS LIMITING
TIME SPENT OUTDOORS, SEEKING AIR CONDITIONED FACILITIES, DRINKING
PLENTY OF WATER, AND POSTPONING PHYSICAL ACTIVITY TO EARLY IN THE
MORNING OR LATER IN THE EVENING. FOR THE MIDLAND-ODESSA REGION,
THE CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 99F WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY (35% TO 45% CHANCE INSTEAD OF <30% CHANCE), BUT HIGHS
MAY STILL NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS. 15% TO 25% POPS DEVELOP FROM
THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SURROUNDING 25% TO 35% POPS OVER THE MARFA
PLATEAU, WITH CONTINUED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 55F ALLOWING
LOWS TO STAY ABOVE THE LOWER 70S F FOR MOST ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL JUST BE A SPEED BUMP ON THE TREND BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MID TO UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS,
DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST DIG INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA,
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AS A HUDSON BAY MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STRENGTHENS.
CONSEQUENTLY, POPS INCREASE TO 25% TO 35% FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY
INTO SE NM PLAINS, AS HIGHS ONLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S F, AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GET CONFINED TO THE
RIO GRANDE. COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO MORE SEASONABLE
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, SETTLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER TO MID 60S F FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM, BUT THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN UNSETTLED
AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS RISE INTO
THE 35% TO 45% RANGE FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AND
AREAWIDE INTO THE 25% TO 40% RANGE SUNDAY, EVEN AS HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND LOWS STAY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA, ALLOWING
HIGHS TO STAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S F RANGE, BRINGING
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES BACK TO MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF TEMPERATURE DECREASE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. ADDITIONALLY, AT LEAST 25% TO 35%
POPS ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR REMAINS
HUMID AND UNSETTLED EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND ENSEMBLES
INDICATE PWATS BEING SLOW TO DECREASE BELOW 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
THEREFORE, HEAVY RAIN WITH AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES ATTEMPT TO
BRING MVFR CIGS JUST EAST OF MAF LATER THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING (WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS,
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT FST IN PARTICULAR), GENERALLY BECOMING
LIGHTER NEAR/AFTER DAWN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 104 73 105 72 / 20 0 0 10
DRYDEN 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 102 72 103 72 / 10 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 95 72 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 101 68 102 68 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 96 63 95 61 / 30 10 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 98 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 103 73 103 72 / 10 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
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